New political season sees a recovery of nerve

As the political season kicked off after the Christmas break there were signs that Government TDs have recovered some of their nerve after the drubbing they took last year.

A meeting of the Fine Gael parliamentary party on Tuesday, the day before Dáil business began, turned out to be a bonding exercise which left most Ministers and TDs feeling a bit happier.

Some of them feared it might turn into a bitter inquest into what had gone wrong in 2014, and could even be dangerous for Taoiseach Enda Kenny. Instead it served to restore some of the confidence that was so obviously lacking at all levels of the party before Christmas.

The message from Kenny and his senior Ministers was that the economic recovery has provided the Government with a strong message to sell but they need to do a much better job of it.

Minister for Finance Michael Noonan told TDs and Senators that while 2014 had been a bad year politically it had been a great year economically, and he suggested that it provided a solid foundation for a political recovery by the time the election came around in early 2016.

Noonan said political instability would inevitably lead to economic instability and that was a concept voters could grasp.

The rising stars of the Cabinet, Simon Coveney and Leo Varadkar, also focused on the theme of competent economic management as a selling point for the Government.

The Labour Party was on the same track during the week, with Joan Burton and Brendan Howlin presiding at a publicity event designed to focus attention on the extra money that people should now have in their pockets as a result of the budget.

The strategy of both Government parties between now and the election is clear. An emphasis on the Coalition’s role in economic recovery combined with concrete measures to put more money in people’s pockets.

Arguments

The question, though, is whether the voters will be impressed by the arguments or even care about them anymore.

The evidence of 2014 is that a significant segment of the electorate is hell bent on getting vengeance for all that has gone wrong since 2008, and will give no quarter to those in power.

Sinn Féin’s rise in the opinion polls and its performance in the local and European elections last year leaves no doubt that the party will make big gains in the next election, the only question is how big.

Fianna Fáil tried to get some headlines with its commitment to gender equality. The party is well positioned to run far more women candidates, given that it currently doesn't have a single female TD, but the real question is whether the public is now ready to forgive and forget its past record.

An even greater imponderable is how strong a force Independents and smaller parties are going to be in the next Dáil.

Lucinda Creighton’s announcement in the new year of her intention to launch a new party represents just one strand in this movement.

There are divided views about how well her new party will do. The initial press conference raised more questions than it answered. A more coherent message, allied to serious candidates, is needed if her party is to catch the public mood of disaffection.

Shane Ross and his motley band of Independents will offer a rival attraction to voters but again the absence of any coherent policy platform and the principle of not applying a whip raises more questions than they answer.

The Trotskyist parties of the left could be a more coherent force than Creighton or Ross if they can set aside their ideological and personality differences by running on a common platform. They are now a serious presence on three of the four Dublin local authorities and have the potential to challenge Labour and Sinn Féin for urban working class votes.

The success of their Greek comrades in turning Syriza into a potential party of government should help their confidence but, as against that, the hard left’s record in this country of splits and rows does not inspire confidence.

The Greens and Independents of every hue will also be in the mix when the election comes around.

At the Fine Gael election strategy meeting this week Frances Fitzgerald made the point that huge swings in support take place in the months before an election. In September 2010, Fine Gael was on 24 per cent in an Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times poll. In the election less than six months later the party won 36 per cent. Making such a dramatic gain between now and the next election is probably out of the question given that the party is stuck with the responsibility of power, but it is still feasible for it to aim for around 30 per cent.

Salvage operation

Labour has an even tougher challenge to claw back support, but the party is not dead and buried as many commentators suggest. It faces a difficult salvage operation, but it has managed to pull it off in the past, most notably in 1987, and just might do it again.

Labour and Fine Gael have to show people that economic recovery translates into improved living standards. Both parties are focusing their message on low and middle income earners but they have a lot of convincing to do.

It will all come down to whether voters find the rival charms of stability or change more attractive. Past experience suggests that in the end the Irish electorate usually plays it safe but, as all the best advertisements warn, past returns are not necessarily a guide to future performance.