Tensions in the Gulf: cutting off Qatar

The decision by Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt to cut all land, sea and air links with Qatar in protest against its alleged support for terrorist and sectarian groups highlights the Gulf region's rivalries, wealth and their spillover effects on the wider Middle East. The small state of Qatar, made fabulously rich from liquid gas, supports the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, sponsors the Al Jazeera satellite channel and is open to contacts with Iran and Israel. These maverick policies have long irritated its neighbours.

The Saudis and their allies believe they have an opportunity to act after the recent visit of US president Donald Trump, who supports their positions on regional issues and wants their backing for US initiatives. They were not willing to accept his plan to reopen negotiations with Israel but welcome his hostility to Iran, association with Sunni loyalties and support for authoritarian regimes. The row highlights just how closely all these states are involved in the region's conflicts.

Qatar is highly vulnerable to the sanctions applied. They will rapidly affect its food supplies, air traffic and investment plans – including for the World Cup in 2022. Hosting the largest US military base in the region gives it some leverage but its peninsular geography and small scale makes it highly subject to regional power politics despite its huge wealth and international investments.

Its government vehemently rejects the accusations made and says Qatar's sovereignty is threatened. But its young ruler, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, is determined to continue supporting its ambitious mediating role, independent spirit and heterodox alliances. He will find this more difficult now and will probably have to compromise. Qatar, like Oman, has been willing to cross lines to work with Iran and resist the powerful Saudi efforts to assert its own strategic and sectarian interests. That makes Qatar an unusual and potentially constructive voice in a region now subject to more and more destructive conflicts which spawn terrorist movements with worldwide impact.