South Koreans vote today in presidential elections that are a watershed in the country’s democratic development. The previous president, Park Geun-hye, is in jail after being impeached and found guilty of corruption and influence peddling while in office. Her going left a power vacuum during a period of economic setbacks and a growing security crisis involving North Korea’s nuclear testing and changing US policy under President Donald Trump. Voters hope to see her successor deal with these issues effectively and build on the strong civil society protest movement which hastened Park’s departure.
The spirit of that movement was reflected in the 24 per cent advance voting turnout of 10 million voters already registered last week and in an expected 80 per cent overall turnout today. Polling indicates this engagement will benefit Moon Jae-in, candidate of the centre left Democratic Party. A human rights lawyer who served under previous liberal presidencies and played a prominent role in the pro-impeachment demonstrations, he promises a crash effort to boost public service employment and a campaign to clean up government and big business dominated by the chaebol – large industrial conglomerates. A national assembly majority and public opinion both in favour of such a reform programme would make these pledges easier to achieve.
Moon favours sanctions, diplomacy and direct political contacts in dealing with North Korea over military action. This puts him potentially at odds with Trump's recent sabre rattling on its nuclear tests; but Trump's willingness to work with China in pressurising the regime could find more common ground. So will the US president's retreat on getting South Korea to pay for the US-owned and controlled anti-missile system installed there during the election campaign.
South Korea has a profound interest in and entitlement to insist on a central role in determining how the North Korean issue is handled by Washington and Beijing. A more determined diplomatic effort to resolve the crisis with China should also involve Japanese and other Asian leaders. They are all coming to terms with a rapidly changing US approach, simultaneously looking after their own national interests in good relations with Washington while finding ways to work together and with China.
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South Korea’s formidable economic strength has given its population the highest median income in Asia and made it one of the most innovative, industrious and highly educated states in the world. Political development has lagged behind these success stories, as the corruption and impeachment conflicts show. A victory for Moon based on his record and promises can open up a period of change that would narrow that gap. Such a mandate would also entitle him to ensure he is not sidelined in dealing with North Korea.