Vladimir Putin's United Russia party won last weekend's parliamentary elections with a greater majority on a lower turnout than in 2011 – and thereby hangs a tale. The previous election results were greeted with widespread protests over fraud whereas this campaign was muted and Putin took the outcome for granted as an endorsement of his regime.
Political commentators at home and abroad struggle to interpret these contrasts by explaining that intimidation, harassment and prosecutions, changes in election thresholds and rules, and the elimination of constitutional checks and balances on presidential power have made life much more difficult for Putin’s opponents.
Putin masterfully commands such techniques; yet the overall legitimacy of this election result is not challenged by observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe despite recurrent reports of fraud and their delicate criticism that “if Russia is to live up to its democratic credentials greater space is needed for debate and political engagement”.
Opponents in the largest cities like Moscow and St Petersburg simply ignored the elections in turnouts of only one third, whereas provincial and rural Russia voted much more strongly for parties supporting the regime. Order and stability are valued more than liberal freedoms in these regions.
The economy is still based mainly on oil and mining which are much weaker than before because of less favourable international conditions. Its military might and more assertive foreign policy has extensive support among voters although not if accompanied by soldier deaths and casualties. This is not the superpower of the Soviet era but is better described in Barack Obama’s words as a “regional power”.
Putin has consolidated his style of illiberal authoritarian populism at home in the last five years and this result clears the way for him to stand again as president next year. All the signs are he will do so secure in the knowledge his opponents are far weaker and his popular approval more assured than before.