Fine Gael leadership: Dispelling the notion of ‘Endless Enda’

In terms of voting transfers, Fine Gael may need Labour more than Labour needs Fine Gael

Charles J Haughey was the last taoiseach who announced his intention of leading on in government for the foreseeable future. He was gone within months, replaced in a "heave" led by Albert Reynolds. So what was chief whip Paul Kehoe thinking about when he said that if Enda Kenny won the coming election, he would serve for another five years and more? The Machiavellian answer is that he was attempting to forestall a leadership challenge.

Fine Gael has long had a tendency to panic in the face of negative opinion poll findings. The party leader is automatically regarded as a liability and worried TDs look about for a replacement. Alan Dukes, John Bruton and Enda Kenny all had that experience. But Mr Kenny saw his critics off. Late last month, opinion polls showed support for Fine Gael to have dropped sharply and Mr Kehoe did two things: he predicted Mr Kenny would stay on for the foreseeable future and he talked up the prospect of a pre-election pact with the Labour Party. The focus immediately switched to the Taoiseach's own intentions. Mr Kenny has now confirmed that, if re-elected, he will step down as leader during his next term in office. You could almost hear the pressure being vented within Fine Gael.

In dispelling the notion of "Endless Enda", the restlessness of leadership contenders and their supporters within Fine Gael was quietly recognised. Frances Fitzgerald, Simon Coveney and Leo Varadkar would all get their opportunities. But not yet. What makes a Machiavellian scenario plausible is that when the party was doing well last March Mr Kenny said he intended to serve a second full term as Taoiseach, if re-elected. There was no mention then of arrogance and presumption in anticipating how people might vote.

The second element of Mr Kehoe's presentation favoured a pre-election pact with the Labour Party. Mr Kenny expanded on that issue too and declared his intention to lead another Fine Gael-Labour coalition. At this stage, with support in single figures, the Labour Party is in deep trouble. But, in terms of voting transfers, Fine Gael may need Labour more than Labour needs Fine Gael. As far as Joan Burton is concerned, any pre-election arrangement will have to be to the Labour Party's advantage.

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With one-third of the electorate indicating support for Independents and others, the formation of a new and stable government will be extremely challenging. In spite of a recovering economy, the Government remains unpopular. Traditional politics has grown new roots and, given the water charges fiasco and the banking inquiry, "more of the same" is unlikely to appeal. Whenever an election is called, the most obvious coalition arrangement may involve Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. That would challenge the survival of both party leaders.