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FOR THE past two years, western intelligence agencies have largely been in agreement that Iran is pursuing acquisition of a nuclear weapon, rejecting claims that it is peacefully seeking atomic power. But where western governments have disagreed for some time is over a central feature of the Iranian programme: its attempts to design a nuclear warhead.

Iran is clearly making progress on two aspects of its programme. It is pressing ahead with uranium enrichment and has enough nuclear material to form the basis for at least one bomb, if further enriched. It is also making progress in developing ballistic missile technology, at least for short- and medium- range missiles.