Iran's approval key to deal on US forces in Iraq

A US soldier guarding a new electricity generator in Baghdad

Iranian opposition to any extension of stay of US troops in Iraq appears to have shifted after the election of Obama, writes Michael Jansen .

THE IRAQI cabinet's approval of the agreement governing US forces in Iraq is likely to have been blessed by Tehran.

The Iraqi decision came as a surprise to some members of its parliament and the public because throughout last week the prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, withheld support for the pact, several ministers expressed reservations and the negotiating team continued to call for

amendments.

However, once the text specified the redeployment of US troops from Iraqi cities by mid-2009 and the withdrawal of all US forces from all of Iraq by December 31st 2011, the objections of ministers seem to have been largely overcome. Analysts suggest that Iran, which had opposed any arrangement extending the stay of US troops in Iraq, seems to have been persuaded by the prohibition against US military attacks on neighbouring countries from Iraqi territory.

The head of the Iranian judiciary, Ayatollah Mahmoud Shahroudi, praised the Iraqi government's efforts and said: "We hope the outcome of [the deal] will be favourable to Islam and Iraqi sovereignty."

Iran's state news agency carried a report which called the Iraqi cabinet vote a "victory for the ruling party and its Kurdish partners".

Although they were projected into power by the US in 2003, Iraq's ruling United Iraqi Alliance - dominated by Mr Maliki's Dawa party and the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council - and the two main Kurdish parties have been closely tied to Iran for decades.

Furthermore, Tehran exercises considerable influence with the Shias because its clerical establishment is the font of Shia religious thinking and Iran is the sole Shia global power.

Some commentators suggest that Tehran may have been influenced by the victory of Barack Obama in the US presidential election. Obama has pledged to conduct dialogue with Iran rather than adopt the policy of the departing Bush administration, which has labelled the country a member of an "axis of evil" and shunned, sanctioned and threatened it with military action. Tehran could have opposed the deal if the presidency had been won by Republican candidate John McCain, a strong supporter of the Iraq war and of robust military action against US antagonists.

The Iraqi vote for the deal coincided with the submission of recommendations by a panel of 20 experts warning Obama against the Bush administration's strategy of "threats and provocations".

Engagement with Iran, they said, would "strengthen US national security".