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THE LISBON Treaty referendum is more likely than not to be won, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll. Government popularity and political complacency have led to a significant fall in the level of support for the Lisbon Treaty within the past four months. But more voters have moved into the “don’t know” camp, rather than transfer directly to a “No” position. With less than a month remaining until polling day, this erosion of support should shake the pro-Lisbon parties out of a lethargy that has been the distinguishing mark of their performances to date.

An eight-point drop in support in the most unpropitious political circumstances should not defeat the treaty. But, if that trend should accelerate and harden into committed opposition, the outcome of the referendum would become uncertain. The electorate still supports the proposition by a margin of 17 points. But, with the “don’t know” camp now amounting to 25 per cent of the electorate, those uncommitted voters could decide the outcome.