Sign up to The Irish Times Archive (1859 - 2008)My Account »

THE REFERENDUM on the Lisbon Treaty is heading towards defeat, according to findings of the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll published today. There is a dramatic shift in public opinion towards a No vote, with majorities in most age groups now opposed to the treaty on the grounds of safeguarding Ireland's identity and neutrality and their poor understanding of the issues.

These findings will come as a huge shock to the Government and the European Union at large. If replicated at polling stations next week, they will damage the authority of the new Taoiseach Brian Cowen and raise diplomatic problems within Europe. The likely impact doesn't stop there. A sudden unravelling of support for the treaty within the major parties raises questions about the nature and quality of the political campaigns being orchestrated by Enda Kenny, Eamon Gilmore and Mr Cowen.