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A lethal political and psychological game is being played in East Timor between the United Nations and the Indonesian government as its people prepare to vote in a referendum on autonomy or independence. The UN Secretary General, Mr Kofi Annan, has once again postponed it, to August 30th, in recognition of grave defects in providing for a fair vote - prominent among them the fact that the Indonesian army has prime responsibility for ensuring security. Tens of thousands of people have been forcibly displaced from their homes by pro-integration militias close to the army in an attempt to sway the result. This makes it difficult or impossible for them to register as voters, despite the valiant efforts of the United Nations Assistance Mission in East Timor to ensure a fair process with unacceptably limited resources. Thus supporters of independence face an agonising dilemma over whether to call for a more prolonged postponement - effectively to allow a renegotiation of the agreement between the UN, Portugal (the colonial power) and Indonesia which would prevent such abuses taking place - or to press ahead with the referendum while doing their best to bring these abuses to international attention.
They must take full account of the changing political realities in Indonesian politics after the opposition party led by Ms Megawati Sukarnoputri won the legislative elections held on June 7th, although formal proclamation of the result has been delayed by the failure of smaller parties to ratify it. She remains sharply critical of the decision by President Habibie last January to hold the referendum on independence, but said yesterday she would respect the result. Informed commentators suspect the military are still the chief power in the vast country, that they are resolutely against independence for East Timor and have numerous vested interests to defend in opposing it. There is also a genuine fear of disintegration in which independence would set a precedent for other territories subject to continuing vicious ethnic conflicts. In these circumstances the case for holding the referendum sooner rather than later is strong, but only if urgent action is taken to rectify these abuses.
