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Tue 04 Apr 2009Today's budget needs to show that the Government is in control
OPINION:The scale of this year’s cumulative fiscal correction is likely to be about 5 per cent of GDP, writes JIM O'LEARY
THE EMERGING budgetary position is probably worse than is commonly supposed. My calculations point to a budget deficit this year, before allowing for the effect of today’s measures, of about €24 billion. I’ve arrived at that figure by taking the Government’s €17 billion forecast of early January and adding to it a €5-6 billion tax shortfall and a spending overrun of €1-2 billion. I reckon the resultant deficit would be close to 15 per cent of GDP.
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