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LESS THAN six months ago analysts were predicting that the days of $200 oil were not far off. Over the first half of the year, increasing demand, driven by consumption in rapidly growing economies such as China and India, forced oil prices past $100 a-barrel and close to $150 in July.

This was against a background of collapsing equity markets that forced investors into safe havens such as commodities, putting further upward pressure on prices. The problem reached the point where the US Senate held an inquiry into what was happening to oil prices as the country's gas-hungry motorists began to feel the pinch.