Orlando gun atrocity could provide big boost to Trump campaign

The gun-control debate could hit a sweet spot for Donald Trump. It appeals to a group that he needs to gain the White House – less educated white Democrats – without doing much to alienate traditionally Republican voters.

Trump made the issue a big part of his response to the mass shooting at the Orlando nightclub, saying his probable opponent, Hillary Clinton, "wants to take away Americans' guns" and promising to meet with the NRA "to discuss how to ensure Americans have the means to protect themselves in this age of terror".

An analysis of Pew Research data shows that nearly half of white working-class Democrats think it’s more important to protect gun rights than to control gun ownership. That’s a larger percentage of voters than agree with Trump on many of the other issues that he stresses on the campaign trail.

At the same time, Trump’s position has considerable support from Republican-leaning voters. About three-quarters of Republican-leaning voters side with gun rights over gun control, according to the Pew data. That’s even better for Trump than a lot of his other populist wedge issues, such as trade and immigration.

Conservative attitudes

It’s about as good as any issue – even general conservative attitudes like whether the government is wasteful.

Trump has a narrow path to the presidency: run up the score among white working-class voters enough to overwhelm losses among well-educated and non-white voters. So far, he isn’t pulling it off.

His gains among working-class white voters – although very real – have come at an equal or greater cost among other voters. This makes gun control a potentially useful issue for Mr Trump.

It’s something he can stress to white working-class Democrats without suffering too much attrition among traditional Republican voters.

Mr Trump’s proposal to ban Muslim immigration might be riskier. Back in 2014, only a quarter of white working-class Democrats agreed that Islam was likelier to encourage violence, and only slightly more than half of Republican-leaners agreed.

Restrictive view

More recent surveys about Mr Trump’s proposal to ban Muslims from entering the United States are split over whether a majority of Americans support his position. Whether the gun debate actually has the power to sway traditionally Democratic voters is another question.

The issue has been debated for decades, and yet these white working-class Democrats have continued to stick with the party that takes a more restrictive view of gun rights.

And the specific proposals advanced by US president Barack Obama and Ms Clinton might be more appealing to these voters than a debate over gun control in the abstract. But no single issue needs to do all of the work for Mr Trump, and gun rights probably do nudge his target voters in his direction.