Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump: the fight for Florida

A Spanish-language radio station in Florida blasts out a sentence in English and the unmistakable voice of Donald Trump. "This is a country where we speak English, not Spanish," says the property developer.

The line, lifted from one of last year's debates in the Republican presidential primary, is broadcast as part of a political ad urging Hispanic voters in the Sunshine State to back Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton, not Trump.

“Well, his wife doesn’t speak English very well,” says Joan Quinland, sitting in the Puerto Rico’s Café, a restaurant in the town of Kissimmee in central Florida.

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Sarah Reynolds (41), a Peruvian-American florist attending a Donald Trump rally in Melbourne, Florida, on Tuesday. Photograph: Simon Carswell

"That's why she had to steal Michelle's speech," replies her friend Ashley Jackson, sitting opposite, speaking about Melania Trump. The businessman's Slovenian-born wife was ridiculed for plagiarising part of a 2008 speech by US first lady Michelle Obama in her speech to the Republican convention in July.

"I, personally, would not vote for him," Quinland (57) tells The Irish Times. A self-employed businesswoman who emigrated from Jamaica to New York at the age of 16 and moved to Florida 29 years ago, Quinland finds Trump's remarks about immigrants "deplorable" and believes he appeals only to older, wealthy white voters – not to Hispanics, like her, or other minorities.

"He is actually talking as if immigrants are nobody, when immigrants built this country. Immigrants built the White House. If he wins the White House, he is going to be living in a house that immigrants built," says the mother of three and grandmother of nine.

Jackson (26), pregnant with her first child, moved to Florida from New York 16 years ago. Her mother came from Puerto Rico, the US island territory in the Caribbean. Her father is African-American.

“It is scary,” she says of Trump. “My child is going to be Hispanic and African-American, so what is his future going to look like? How are they going to portray him or treat him because of his mix, and the new generation that is coming?”

Buck the trend

Trump is hoping to buck the trend that most other Republicans, nursing the wounds of two successive presidential election losses, have discounted: that the party can rely on its traditional base of white voters to take the White House.

Trump is banking on drawing out enough high school-educated blue-collar whites to make up his shortfall among college-educated white voters, white female voters, Hispanics and other minorities.

His strategy explains his firebrand racist rhetoric that has divided a nation. Standing in his way are Hispanic voters in Florida such as Quinland and Jackson, a growing political force in the US as the country becomes more ethnically diverse.

“He talks about wanting to make America great again, but in what way? How?” asks Quinland. “My concern is that this country has come a far way and it is appalling to think that he would want to bring it back to the era where whites feel they are superior.”

Nowhere will Trump’s game-plan be more tested than in Florida, the country’s third most populous state, where Puerto Ricans, Hispanics and other Latino voters will play a critical role in the November 8th election.

The largest swing state has 29, or a tenth, of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. It is pivotal to deciding the winner of the race, as it famously did in 2000 when George W Bush’s razor-thin victory over Al Gore put him in the Oval Office. As Florida votes, so goes the nation.

The advantage Clinton has in the big electoral, heavily populated states means she can lose Florida and still win the White House. The way the polls are looking, a loss in Florida would sink Trump’s chances.

Cliff-hanger

The Sunshine State is a cliff-hanger again this year. Polls show the candidates deadlocked in Florida. The average of polls tracked by elections website Real Clear Politics, gives Clinton a half-point lead.

A dreadful week for Trump put Florida back in the blue column after he led here in the polls for several days.

He was mauled by the Democrat in the first presidential debate on Monday. His subsequent fight with Latina beauty queen Alicia Machado and his remarks about her weight-gain being "a real problem" have not helped his following among Hispanics.

A Newsweek report suggesting that he may have violated the US trade embargo with Cuba in 1998 when he visited the island, is unlikely to play well with Florida's 1.4 million Cuban-Americans, who have been shifting more towards the Democratic Party in recent years.

Reflecting the significance of Florida, Trump made a beeline for the state on Tuesday to meet Hispanic donors in Miami and to hold his first post-debate rally, in Melbourne, an hour south of Orlando.

“Florida is an expensive race, competitive and crucial to victory,” says Susan MacManus, a politics professor at the University of South Florida.

One of the few Hispanic supporters at Trump’s rally was Sarah Reynolds, who runs a florist shop in Melbourne. The 41-year-old, who migrated from Peru, is not bothered by Trump’s rhetoric.

“He is just trying to make our country great again. I don’t think that has anything to do with racism. Whether you’re from Peru, or a different country, I just feel that he is an equal candidate for all of us,” she said.

The further north you travel in Florida, the more Southern it gets. Miami and the heavily populated southern-tip of Florida swings strongly Democratic. The Panhandle and the north-east votes mostly Republican. Between these blue and red areas is a purple-tinged stretch dissecting the state,between Tampa and Orlando, known as the I-4 corridor, named after the highway that connects the cities.

Demographic change

The growth of Disney World and other tourist attractions around Orlando has brought some of the most significant demographic change witnessed anywhere in the country.

US census data shows that Hispanics accounted for just 750,000 of the 1.5 million increase in Florida’s population between 2010 and 2015, a rate of growth that was six times that of non-Hispanic whites. Many made their home around Orlando, making this area a battleground within a battleground.

The big populations of Hillsborough, Polk, Orange and Osceola counties along the I-4 corridor could determine not just the winner in Florida, but the presidency.

A potential thumb on the I-4 scale this time around is the influx of Puerto Ricans who have fled the debt crisis on the cash-strapped US island territory in the Caribbean. They have settled in huge numbers in Kissimmee and around the Orlando area, which has the state’s largest Puerto Rican population.

The number of Puerto Ricans has more than doubled in the past 15 years and stands at 1.1 million. More than 200,000 moved to the state between 2010 and 2015. As US citizens, they can vote and are politically active; voting levels are far higher in Puerto Rico than in the 50 states. Barack Obama carried Florida's Hispanics by 60 to 39 per cent in his 2012 victory, and Clinton is hoping for a similar turnout.

"The I-4 corridor is the area that is going to make a difference, and the demography has moved more in her direction, but she will have to sustain some of the turnout that Obama got among Hispanics," says William Frey, a demographer at the Washington-based Brookings Institute think-tank.

“If you had to bet, you would say she could eke out a victory, but there are many white voters in Florida who have moved from the midwest and that is Trump territory. I am thinking that it will be 60-40 in her favour, but it is demography versus turnout.”

Turnout test

Florida is a turnout test for Trump too. He needs to mobilise record numbers of white working-class voters. But there are challenges for him too. That group has shrunk from 55 per cent of eligible voters to 43 per cent between 2000 and 2016, while the Hispanic share has risen from 12.5 per cent to 20.6 per cent.

“This is maybe the very last time a candidate can actually win the White House banking solely on a very large white voter turnout, simply because of the changing demographics in the US,” says Eduardo Gamarra, a politics professor at Florida International University in Miami.

At the Puerto Rico’s Café, over dishes of fried pork, black beans and rice, customers’ stomachs are turned at the thought of voting for Trump in 38 days.

“For me, he is no good,” says truck driver Anna Rivera (40), who moved to Florida from Puerto Rico 10 years ago. “For Hispanic people, for Mexicans, he is not liked. He is racist.”

Lucy Ortiz (59), a postal worker of Puerto Rican heritage, who moved to Florida from New York, dislikes the Republican too. “He has built a lot of walls, especially with the Latin community,” she says.

She is not overjoyed with Clinton either. “I don’t care for either one,” she says. “I don’t think I’m even going to vote. One says a lie, the other says a lie – him about his tax returns, her about her emails.”

Republicans see the lack of enthusiasm for Clinton as an opportunity to close the 24-point gap by which Obama won Osceola County four years ago and hand more votes to Trump.

“We are knocking on doors trying to convince people, and we see the enthusiasm out there for Donald Trump,” says Mark Oxner, chairman of the Osceola County Republican Party.

“People just aren’t as excited about Clinton as they were for Obama. From our standpoint, a Democrat who doesn’t vote is a vote for Trump.”

Another complication for the candidates is the high number of voters not aligned with either party. They are Florida’s fastest-growing voter group, accounting for more than a quarter of eligible voters. “It is a very competitive state, more so than ever because of them,” says MacManus.

The acronym, “NPA,” or “no party affiliation” is three-letter target for Peter Vivaldi, a Republican from the Orlando region who is running for the Florida state senate.

Woo voters

The 55-year-old businessman, the son of Puerto Rican parents, is trying to woo voters, including his fellow Hispanics, turned off by Trump’s rhetoric or their pre-Trump notions about Republicans. He tries to engage voters on local issues: the high level of homelessness for low-income workers, education and the concerns of “mom-and-pop shops” and small businesses feeding off the big resort companies.

“Our campaign is focusing on those NPAs who are not happy with any party. Do we see people who knock on doors who may say things [about Trump]? Absolutely. But we talk to them on our message, not who they should vote for as president,” he said.

Orlando property agent Luis Figueroa (29), who moved to Florida from Puerto Rico 10 years ago, switched from being a registered Republican to an NPA when his candidate, Florida's Cuban-American senator Marco Rubio, left the race. He thinks Puerto Ricans will back Clinton by a 65-35 margin, possibly 70-30.

“If Trump wins Florida, it is going to be by a small margin,” he says. “It depends how many people vote. If we have a record turnout, he is probably going to win by a large margin. If the turnout is smaller, Hillary is going to win. It is all going to depend on voter mobilisation.”

Some 20 minutes west of Kissimmee is Celebration, the town that Disney built. Planned for its resort workers, the town’s soft colours, manicured gardens and white picket fences make this an idyll of the American Dream.

The town is full of tourists, “snowbird”retirees from the north and mostly white, wealthy residents, showing the mix of voters in Osceola County. The pick of candidates has left some in the town with little to celebrate.

“It is not really a choice,” said Michael Dowling (57), an investor, standing outside the Sweet Escape bakery with his wife Cindy (56) and their dog, Buddy, a golden retriever-poodle mix or “goldendoodle”.

“He is a jerk; she is worse,” he adds, voicing his anger at the government’s poor medical treatment for military veterans, the failure to fix a broken immigration system and Trump’s own immigration plans.

Dowling says he will probably vote for Trump: “I don’t like him but Hillary is a liar, a huge liar.”

Two friends walk by with their young babies. Ashley (30), cradling the infant in her arms, says she is voting for Clinton because she likes her policies on education.

“I am voting for Trump,” says her friend Janine (36), a school counsellor.

“Oh! Seriously?” says Ashley, shocked.

“There are just some points I just can’t agree with Hillary,” answers Janine.

She supports Trump’s plan to close the borders and believes illegal immigrants should not be automatically granted US citizenship when other immigrants, such as her husband, “went the right way” and had to wait years.

“I just think Donald Trump is just sexist,” says Ashley. “Honestly, it would be scary if he was president, to have the nuclear codes.”

Even in Celebration, opinion is divided, mirroring the state-wide view in Florida.