Refugee crisis and Russia loom large in Bulgaria election

Bulgaria's handling of the refugee crisis and relations with Moscow are key issues for its voters in Sunday's presidential election, in which a strong challenge from the leftist candidate could undermine the government of prime minister Boiko Borisov.

Mr Borisov's ruling Gerb party dithered before naming Tsetska Tsacheva as its nominee to succeed Rosen Plevneliev as president, and she is seen as a loyal party functionary rather than a charismatic leader in her own right.

If she is to become the first female president of the country of 7.2 million people, she must see off the opposition Socialist contender Rumen Radev, a former Bulgarian air force commander and fighter pilot.

Both candidates support Bulgaria's continued membership of the European Union and Nato, and want it to be incorporated as quickly as possible into the EU's Schengen zone of "passport-free" travel.

However, in contrast to Mr Plevneliev, who has accused Russia of seeking to destabilise Bulgaria and the EU with everything from economic pressure to cyber attacks, Ms Tsacheva and Gen Radev take a more emollient stance towards Moscow.

Looking east

Both expressed a desire to lift the economic sanctions placed on Russia when it annexed Crimea, and fomented a conflict in eastern Ukraine that has killed some 10,000 people and displaced more than one million.

While Ms Tsacheva has subsequently made clear that sanctions must only end when peace is established in Ukraine, Gen Radev and the Socialists have emphasised the need to boost relations with Russia.

Relations between the two countries were extremely close during the communist era. Russia’s money and business still have considerable influence in Bulgaria, which relies on Moscow for energy and welcomes many Russian tourists each year.

“Europhilia does not mean Russophobia. Anti-Russian rhetoric carries unnecessary risks,” Gen Radev (53) said recently. “Definitely, I will work toward lifting the sanctions. Crises should be resolved with political tools and not economic.”

Any shift towards the Kremlin would disturb EU and US efforts to maintain pressure on Russia, and concern Nato as it boosts security around the Black Sea in light of Moscow’s militarisation of the Crimean peninsula.

Gen Radev’s air force background may play well with nationalist supporters, as could his desire for Bulgaria to take a tough line on Europe’s refugee crisis.

Bulgaria has come under increasing strain as more asylum seekers have crossed its territory from Turkey to the Balkans rather crossing the Mediterranean to Greece, and far-right parties may benefit from public concern over the crisis.

The preference of their supporters for Ms Tsacheva or Gen Radev may be crucial if, as expected, the two top Sunday’s vote but fail to take more than 50 per cent, sending them through to a run-off a week later.