Labour MPs find their moment to pounce after Brexit vote

The post-referendum firestorm that destroyed David Cameron's premiership on Friday now threatens to engulf Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, leaving both of Britain's main parties immobilised as the country faces its most serious political crisis for decades.

The parade of shadow cabinet figures who resigned on Sunday, the announcements coming at a rate of almost one an hour, was an eloquent expression of Labour MPs’ lack of confidence in their leader. That feeling will find formal expression in a motion of no confidence in Corbyn introduced today and voted on later, probably tomorrow.

The vote will be a secret ballotand could win the support of more than 80 per cent of MPs.

The hostility of most of his MPs will come as no surprise to Corbyn, who won the leadership when the party membership rejected the parliamentary party. The struggle for control of the party, between the MPs and the membership, has never been far below the surface during Corbyn’s leadership and he knew it was only a matter of time before he faced a challenge.

Patience

Until now, his enemies have been divided about the timing of their coup, with some urging early action to prevent Corbyn’s allies extending their control over the party apparatus. Others called for patience, predicting Corbyn would destroy himself, or a catastrophic defeat in a 2020 general election would drive members back to their senses.

The referendum has impelled Corbyn’s foes into action, partly on account of the shock of the party’s failure to mobilise its voters to back what is a core element of the political identity of many Labour MPs.

Two other factors added to the urgency: the likelihood of an election within six or nine months, and a perception that Corbyn may be losing popularity among the membership.

The MPs have some advantages, notably the almost universal support of the Westminster media, who are bewildered by the insurgency that swept Corbyn into the Labour leadership.

But Corbyn has the backing of many of the big unions, as well as grassroots organisations of party members. And the spectacle of identikit Labour MPs parroting the same talking points on TV and radio throughout Sunday could serve to remind party members why they backed Corbyn in the first place.

Manoeuvres

The weekend’s manoeuvres are likely to end in a challenge to Corbyn’s leadership and a contest which will play out over the summer.

In the meantime, the party faces a complicated task in interpreting the outcome of the referendum. One in three of those who voted Labour last year voted Leave but two thirds wanted to stay in the EU, a position which received overwhelming support among ethnic minorities and young voters, both key Labour constituencies.

Much of the media has focused on the role of working class former Labour voters in determining the referendum outcome but the overwhelming majority of those who voted Leave last week voted for the Conservatives or Ukip last year. In seeking to regain the support of disenchanted voters in some parts of England, Labour must be careful to avoid alienating a greater number elsewhere.