Everything and nothing changes as fiercest battles still ahead for Cameron

Sitting on a gaily-coloured TV studio couch yesterday morning, British prime minister David Cameron had come to talk about bread-and-butter issues for British voters, particularly the bills millions face for childcare.

However, he had a subsidiary message, too: that he will not rush the holding of a referendum on the UK's European Union membership – a counter to some of the more hyperbolic predictions that have been made, including by his own foreign secretary, Philip Hammond.

“By the end of 2017 – obviously if I can complete this work earlier and hold the referendum earlier that would be good. But I don’t have to rush this, we have a mandate from the British people to go and make this negotiation, to get it right,” he said.

Cameron has returned buoyed by his rushed tour of four EU capitals last week, including Paris and Berlin, particularly on the back of Angela Merkel’s declaration that treaty change is “not impossible”. Her phraseology, if highly qualified, was treated by some in London as a major boost. In truth, however, there is little the Germans can do to satisfy Cameron’s core demands as they are currently framed, and certainly not in time for a referendum near the end of 2017.

However, a journey must begin with a first step. Throughout his four-capital tour, Cameron sought to soothe wounds left by his decision to veto the euro zone’s bid to put the fiscal pact inside the EU treaties, or his attempts to block Jean-Claude Juncker as the European Commission’s president.

“It was like meeting a different person,” according to one person who met the prime minister, although Cameron’s plans to curb tax credit benefits enjoyed by eastern Europeans working in Britain were given short shrift in Warsaw.

Behind the scenes, however, everything and nothing has changed: Cameron has won a majority and will enjoy the mandate that comes with that, even if, as always, it is a declining brand. However, the cabinet's Europe committee, set up yesterday, shows the strength of the Eurosceptic voice in London. Chaired by Cameron, it also includes Hammond, Theresa May, Sajid Javid and Iain Duncan Smith.

The frustration felt towards Cameron – even in EU capitals such as Amsterdam, Copenhagen and Berlin, where sympathies should be strongest – is deep: "A lot of colleagues are saying, 'I'm fed up, There is not only London on this planet'," The Irish Times was told by one quarter.

For now, the opening choreography will continue: Cameron will put flesh to some degree on his plans at the EU summit later this month, although it is far from clear that his EU colleagues will even then be clear about what he wants.

Meanwhile, diplomats will dust down old deals in search of inspiration, the most prominent of which is the 1992 agreement in Edinburgh that gave the Danes four opt-outs after voters there had rejected the Maastricht Treaty.

Then, the Danes voted again less than a year later, this time saying Yes on the back of the concessions, but their action did not affect other countries who had already voted – in parliament or by plebiscite – to accept the treaty. If such a model offers a guide, then Cameron could hope for concessions – not as much as he wants, but sufficient – but they would be added as footnotes to the next EU treaty, whenever that is agreed.

A survey of Conservative Party members shows that Cameron has some freedom to manoeuvre, since they are not pressing the prime minister to rush: two-thirds are prepared to wait until 2017.

Equally, six in 10 would vote to leave if they were asked to cast a ballot today. Just 30 per cent would vote today to stay in – a starker result than one gets from a survey of the British population as a whole.

Cameron’s opening demands are manageable if they are opening demands, rather than red lines. The fact that he has already drawn back from demanding fundamental curbs on free movement rules is taken as a positive signal.