David Cameron under pressure to cut deal in Europe

Tough battle ahead for isolated British prime minister on payments to migrants from EU

David Cameron arrives in Brussels on Thursday under mounting domestic pressure to secure an agreement on curbing welfare payments to European Union migrants, a demand that is unacceptable to almost all other EU leaders.

With polls on Britain's EU referendum tightening, the prime minister promised MPs on Wednesday that he would secure a "good deal" from his negotiations in Brussels. German chancellor Angela Merkel highlighted the scale of Mr Cameron's challenge on Wednesday when she ruled out any deal with Britain that would interfere with the principle of free movement of people.

"We don't want to, and we won't, call into question the core principles of European integration," she told the Bundestag.

“These include in particular the principle of free movement and the principle of non-discrimination between European citizens.”

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Mr Cameron has identified four objectives in his EU negotiations: to ensure that the euro zone cannot discriminate against non-members; to cut business regulation; to secure an opt-out for Britain from the EU’s commitment to an “ever closer union” and win a bigger role for national parliaments; and to curb welfare payments to EU migrants.

Little support

European Council

president

Donald Tusk

said this month that there was a basis for agreement on the first three issues, but there is little support for Mr Cameron’s proposal on migrants.

A study by the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think tank, found this week that 25 of Britain’s 28 EU partners flatly oppose the curb on benefits to EU migrants.

Only Ireland and Finland were open to considering some version of the idea.

The Conservative election manifesto promised to require EU migrants to have lived in the UK for at least four years before they could qualify for certain benefits. Unfortunately for Mr Cameron, migration is the most important issue in the EU referendum for British voters.

The issues of immigration and welfare have been at the top in almost every poll that has been conducted on the referendum and recent polls suggest that these interlinked issues are becoming more important for floating voters.

Two polls this week suggest the referendum is too close to call, with ICM putting the two sides in a dead heat and Survation showing the “Leave” side slightly ahead.

Good deal

The Scottish National Party on Wednesday accused Mr Cameron of risking Scotland’s place in the EU by throwing away the referendum. But the prime minister insisted that he was on course to negotiate a good deal for Britain.

Earlier, former prime minister John Major warned that Britain's could enter "splendid isolation" by leaving the EU, a step that would trigger the break-up of the United Kingdom and damage the country's international prestige.

He said that the issues under negotiation in Brussels were not worth risking Britain’s EU membership for.

“I can’t put myself inside David Cameron’s mind, I can tell you what my view is: my view is that this renegotiation is important but that it shouldn’t decide whether or not we remain inside the European Union because of the importance of the issue,” he told the BBC.

Denis Staunton

Denis Staunton

Denis Staunton is China Correspondent of The Irish Times