Sunnis fear massacres if Falluja falls to pro-government forces

The execution of 49 Iraqi Sunni men and the disappearance of 643 captured by Shia militiamen reinforces Sunni fears there may be massacres if Islamic State-occupied Falluja falls to pro-government forces who are besieging the city.

Mass executions and disappearances could make Baghdad’s task of retaking Falluja all the more difficult, deadly and destructive if jihadi and tribal defenders decide to die fighting rather than to surrender.

Before the Iraqi army opened a corridor to allow civilians to escape, the UN estimated that 90,000 remained in Falluja. Over the weekend, some 4,000 risked their lives to reach army lines along a protected corridor, but on Monday the Norwegian Refugee Council’s Karl Schembri said the flow had come to a halt. The number of civilians fleeing by other routes has fallen because 3,800 have been arrested.

Islamic State fighters

According to provincial police chief Hadi Rzayej among the escapees were 546 suspected Islamic State fighters. Nothing has been said about how these men are being treated.

All men and youths escaping from Falluja have been viewed as possible Islamic State moles. They have been separated from women, girls and boys, taken to holding centres and violently interrogated. Some have died under torture. While freed men are permitted to join their women and children in displacement camps in the inhospitable desert not far from Falluja, the escapees lack water, food, and medical attention due to a shortfall in UN funding.

While the Shia fundamentalist-dominated government announced it has arrested a number of Shia militia men suspected of harming escapees, no information has been provided on whether abusers came from the army or the Shia militias operating in the Hashd al-Shaabi, Popular Mobilisation Forces.

Death squads

Neither are trusted by Sunnis as many recruits have come from anti-Sunni “death squads” formed during the civil conflict that erupted after the 2003 US occupation.

So far Baghdad has not imposed order on the forces advancing on Falluja, the last but one major Iraqi city in Islamic State hands and a beacon of Sunni resistance to the post-2003 sectarian order in Iraq. If the government fails, Islamic State forces occupying Mosul could count on the support of Sunnis living in that city when the campaign to retake Mosul is launched.

Furthermore, Iraq’s Sunni community as a whole could remain alienated and angry, ready to embrace any force prepared to fight Baghdad. Sunni governments and wealthy individuals could also send funds to Islamic State and other jihadi factions to sustain the fight against the Shias.