Israel and Palestinians raise stakes in deadly game of poker

The conflict between Israel and Hamas is similar to a poker game with both players constantly raising the stakes in the hope that his opponent will throw in his cards. The problem is that both players show no signs of quitting and instead are threatening to raise the stakes even higher.

For Hamas this could mean launching longer-range missiles at the greater Tel Aviv area; for Israel it potentially means launching a ground offensive.

Both options become more likely the longer the violence rages.

The countdown to Operation Protective Edge began on June 12th with the murder of three Israeli teenagers in the West Bank. No Palestinian group claimed responsibility but within a few days Israeli intelligence determined that two Hamas activists from the West Bank city of Hebron were responsible; the search for the two is ongoing.

Crackdown

Israel responded with a massive crackdown against the Hamas infrastructure throughout the West Bank, arresting most of the group’s political and military leadership, including militants released in prisoner swaps with Israel.

Militants in Gaza responded with rocket fire into Israel that has continued, and intensified, ever since.

Hamas leaders in Gaza went underground weeks ago and militants prepared for the possibility of a major clash with Israeli forces which were boosted along the border.

Israel launched air strikes but prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, despite being under increasing pressure from right-wing ministers for a tougher response, resisted calls to launch a war.

Netanyahu has always been super-cautious when it comes to approving military operations, demonstrating the Israeli adage that it is more difficult for a right-wing leader to make war and for a left-wing leader to make peace.

Any Israeli invasion aimed at toppling the Hamas regime in Gaza would take months and would, in all probability, result in significant casualties on both sides. And a major problem would remain: what would come next?

Loss of allies

Hamas is in its weakest position for many years having lost the support of key international allies, notably Egypt , Syria and Iran.

The Hamas regime is on the verge of bankruptcy and it struggles to pay the salaries of the armed forces and civil servants in the Gaza Strip. The Israeli blockade continues, the Rafah crossing with Egypt remains closed and Egyptian forces have destroyed hundreds of smuggling tunnels – a vital source of Hamas income.

Extremist Salafist militias, some linked to al-Qaeda, are growing in strength in Gaza and the aftermath of an Israeli invasion could result in chaos and anarchy, similar to that in Somalia, the Sinai and Iraq.

The bitter reality from the Israeli perspective is that Hamas is bad , but what might follow could be much worse.

For these reasons the Israeli leadership is extremely reluctant to give the green light for a ground offensive with the aim of toppling the Hamas regime. It is likely that eventually the sides will agree to a ceasefire similar to the truce that ended previous rounds of fighting.

However, those arrangements were mediated by Egyptian intelligence when Egypt was led by Hosni Mubarak and Mohamed Morsi. The current regime of president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi sees Hamas as a terrorist threat. Hamas leaders refused to answer the phone this week to Egyptian mediators.

For now, the fighting continues.