Aleppo under siege is used as a bargaining chip

Russia's announcement of its intention to establish a permanent base near Syria's port of Latakia and the decision of Moscow and Ankara to conduct joint operations in the fight against Islamic State have created new politico-military dynamics in the struggle for Syria. These developments show Russia is calling the shots, for the present.

Senior Russian senator Frants Klintsevich said the Hmeimim base at Latakia will be transformed into a permanent facility, Moscow's second in Syria, once its legal status is agreed with Damascus. This declaration shows that Russia plans to keep its forces in Syria indefinitely and that it remains committed to its alliance with the government of president Bashar al-Assad. Russia's first fixed base is a naval service facility at Tartus.

Western criticism

Co-operation between Moscow and Ankara was agreed by Russia’s president

Vladimir Putin

and his Turkish counterpart

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

who, angered over western criticism of his policies and seeking realignment, travelled to St Petersburg this week.

The two leaders’ primary aim is to prevent mishaps like the Turkish downing last November of a Russian warplane flying missions over northern Syria. Putin also wants Erdogan to take part in the battle against Islamic State, also known as Isis, halt the flow of men and arms to other jihadi groups operating in Syria, and support the resumption by the end of the month of talks between the Syrian government and opposition. A Turkish delegation is in Moscow for continuing discussions.

Blocking the flow of reinforcements and supplies through Turkey to insurgents in Syria is an urgent Russian objective. Without men, arms, and money, Jaish al-Fatah, the Army of Conquest, could not have mounted last weekend's offensive that broke through Syrian army defences and reached opposition-controlled east Aleppo.

This coalition of jihadi factions, led by Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (Jabhat al-Nusra until it renounced ties to al-Qaeda) and Ahrar al-Sham, is armed and funded by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Weapons provided to these groups can end up with Islamic State, the main target of the US-led coalition.

Following the offensive, Jaish al-Fatah fighters became trapped in east Aleppo by government forces, given air cover by Russia, and a siege was reinstated, cutting food and fuel supplies to 250,000 civilians. Running water was also disrupted for six days to both east and west Aleppo, where 1.2 million civilians live. This was partially restored after a pumping station was repaired.

Blockade re-imposed

A 40-lorry convoy delivered 1,000 tonnes of food – said to be enough for two months – to the government-held west yesterday and buses supplied food and fuel last Monday, but only a few pick-ups carrying fresh food reached the east before the blockade was re-imposed.

To ease the deteriorating humanitarian situation in the east, Russia proposed a daily three-hour ceasefire and opened several corridors, allowing more than 300 civilians to leave the area, but the UN demands a 48-hour halt for two-way traffic. UN, US and Russian officials have been discussing this demand but insurgents also have to accept any deal.

The UN says there is urgent need to evacuate wounded civilians as well as provide food and medical supplies to east Aleppo. The UN calls for reinstatement of a countrywide cessation of hostilities and an end to the siege. UN envoy Staffan de Mistura insists these demands must not become preconditions for a resumption of peace talks. The government says it is ready to attend a third round of talks in Geneva but the Riyadh-sponsored opposition includes these very issues in its preconditions for participation.

De Mistura argues that “those who don’t want the talks to take place could actually use those preconditions as a spoiling element in order to not have the talks take place”.