Ukraine warns protesters and receives energy ultimatum from Russia

US and Russia expect little from next week’s four-way talks


Ukraine has threatened to forcibly clear pro-Russian protesters from official buildings in eastern cities, as Moscow and the West played down hopes for a swift diplomatic solution to the country's crisis.

Tension continued to rise in Ukraine's largely Russian- speaking industrial heartland as Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin warned Kiev's pro-western government not to take any action that "could not be put right" and threatened to tighten the economic screws on the cash-strapped state.

Kiev is struggling to assert control over regions near Russia, where it says Moscow's agents are fomenting separatism and trying to repeat events in Crimea, which Russia annexed last month after sending in troops to protect Russian-speakers from "fascist" supporters of the government.

Pretext to invade
The United States and European Union accuse Moscow of creating a pretext to invade Ukraine, which is poised to tilt to the West after an uprising that claimed more than 100 lives and ousted Kremlin- backed president Viktor Yanukovich, who has found refuge in Russia.

“I think that a resolution of this crisis will be found in the next 48 hours,” interior minister Arsen Avakov said yesterday, as pro-Russian demonstrators refused to leave the local government administration in Donetsk and the security service headquarters in nearby Luhansk.

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“There are two possible ways it can happen: either through a negotiation process or forceful intervention . . . We are ready for both,” Mr Avakov added.

Local officials were negotiating last night with leaders of the activists, some of whom are armed. The protesters want eastern Ukraine to join Russia or to secure more autonomy from Kiev.

Many people in the region have sympathy with those demands, while others are happy with the current system and the new government and would welcome closer ties with the EU.

Kiev says Moscow wants Ukraine to become a federation because that would dramatically weaken the country’s pro-EU government and give Russia huge influence in the east. Russian is the main language in eastern Ukraine and the area’s heavy industry relies on contracts with Russia.

It was also the support base for Mr Yanukovich, and many of its politicians and businessmen fear they will lose their influence and wealth and may even face prosecution under a new government dominated by opponents from other areas.

Turmoil
After being told by his officials that Kiev allegedly owes Russia $16.6 billion (€12 billion), Mr Putin warned that Moscow could contractually insist that Ukraine pay for gas deliveries a month in advance.

That would increase strain on a state in turmoil and threatened by bankruptcy. However, Mr Putin asked the government not to demand this yet, due to “the situation Ukraine is in and the fact that the negotiation process with the EU has not finished”.

“That is, if course, if our partners agree to these consultations. If not, then there is no question – we will act according to the contract,” he said.

“Russia doesn’t recognise the legitimacy of the Kiev authorities but still continues providing economic support and subsidising the Ukrainian economy with hundreds of millions and billions of dollars. Of course, this situation cannot last forever,” Mr Putin added.

Talks between Ukraine, Russia, the EU and US are expected to take place next Thursday, probably in Vienna. "I have to say that we don't have high expectations for these talks but we do believe it is very important to keep that diplomatic door open," said US assistant secretary of state Victoria Nuland.

Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow was "waiting for an explanation of what [other countries] intend to do at the meeting . . . There are more questions than answers."

Daniel McLaughlin

Daniel McLaughlin

Daniel McLaughlin is a contributor to The Irish Times from central and eastern Europe