Turkey moves into clear EU focus amid Syrian conflict

The picturesque Alsatian town of Strasbourg is used to finding itself at the centre of political activity when thousands of MEPs and Eurocrats descend on its streets each month. But the town became the unlikely focus for a different form of political action last Sunday, when Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan chose to kick off his three-day European tour in the French town.

More than 12,000 people, mostly from the Turkish community in Europe, gathered to hear Erdogan address a rally organised by his supporters. Hundreds more came to protest at the visit of a leader who many view as increasingly authoritarian.

A rally that had been planned the following day at an 18,000-seat arena in Brussels was scrapped, after the mayor of Brussels intervened. "An election campaign should not be confused with a state visit," mayor Yvan Mayeur told Belgian national television.

This week’s visit by the Turkish president to Europe had at times more the air of an upbeat election campaign than a diplomatic visit, as Erdogan attempted to mobilise the influential Turkish diaspora ahead of the November 1st election.

The ballot is seen as the most significant election in decades as the country faces a resurgent Kurdish conflict and increasing tensions with Russia over Syria.

Erdogan's air of confidence this week as he toured the EU institutions was not unfounded. Having seen its membership aspirations languish, Turkey has now found itself the focus of EU attention as Europe faces the twin challenges of the migration crisis and the Syrian civil war.

Unwanted member

The history of Turkish-EU relations has been a fractious one. Officially an EU candidate country since 2005, Turkey’s EU membership path has stalled in recent years, in part due to the ongoing dispute with

Greece

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Cyprus

, in part due to the opposition of several member states to the idea of EU membership for Turkey.

Erdogan's increasingly authoritarian behaviour, demonstrated by the arrest of dozens of journalists, has also served to push the question of Turkish EU membership down the political agenda, and emboldened its critics – particularly in the European Parliament – who ask whether Turkey has the democratic credentials required for EU membership.

The migration crisis has changed all that, a policy shift already intimated late last year when EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini chose to visit Ankara within weeks of her appointment.

Similarly, European Council president Donald Tusk's visit to a refugee camp in Turkey last month is widely believed to have shifted the focus of the EU debate on migration towards the countries bordering Syria and away from the internal squabbling of EU member states, with EU leaders pledging €1 billion in aid to Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan at their emergency summit on migration two weeks ago.

This week's meetings between Erdogan and the heads of the European Commission, European Parliament and European Council focused on specific ways to jointly tackle the refugee crisis. The EU presented Erdogan with an "action plan" in which Europe would offer to resettle more refugees from Turkey in exchange for Ankara building more camps and increasing its coast guard surveillance.

With Russia’s incursion into Turkish airspace overshadowing the visit, Erdogan pressed EU leaders on the need for a safe zone in northern Syria, a notion opposed by many, particularly given suspicion that part of Turkey’s motivation is to contain Kurds.

Role of Kurds

Though the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is on the EU’s list of terrorist organisations, the EU has been one of the most vocal critics of the recent unravelling of the Turkish- Kurdish peace process.

But in terms of specific achievements this week, the long-term question of the status of Turkey’s EU accession remained unanswered. While the commission said it would consider the “acceleration of the visa liberalisation process” which has long been a Turkish demand in the accession negotiations, Turkish membership of the EU seems as far away as ever.

The migration crisis, Turkey's status as a Nato member in the context of the escalating situation in Syria, and its role as a key transit country for so-called "foreign fighters" suggest that the EU must engage with the large country to its east.

As the Syrian conflict and its spillover effects continue, over the next few years the EU might find that it needs Turkey more than Turkey needs the EU.