Rajoy faces rocky ride despite end to Spain’s political deadlock

As politicians started arriving in Madrid's Congress on Saturday for the confidence vote that would see Mariano Rajoy instated for another term as prime minister, protesters gathered near the parliament building.

Authorities had feared that the demonstration, called by a collection of leftist organisations against what they described as an “illegitimate” government which had the backing of the establishment but not the people, would be massive and lead to disturbances. Instead, the turnout was respectable without being overwhelming and there were no major incidents.

But it was nonetheless a warning to Rajoy that the coming legislature promises to be a rocky ride for him and his conservative Popular Party (PP).

As expected, Rajoy won the vote, with 170 votes in favour of his candidacy, 111 against and 68 abstentions, bringing to an end 10 months of political deadlock and averting a third general election in the space of a year.

The Galician now leads Spain’s weakest administration since the country’s return to democracy in the late 1970s and it is very different to his previous government. Between 2011 and 2015, the PP’s parliamentary majority – 186 seats out of a total 350 – allowed it to push through reforms without having to negotiate or compromise. Now, Rajoy’s party has only 137 seats.

"Spain needs more than just an investiture ceremony," Rajoy told Congress on Saturday, as he acknowledged this new position of instability. "Don't try to impose on me things I can't accept."

Clear priorities

The prime minister’s priorities are clear. He wants to consolidate the fragile economic recovery, bring the stubbornly high unemployment rate down from 19 per cent, shore up the pensions system, overhaul the country’s regional financing and counter Catalonia’s bid to create an independent republic.

But this is not a coalition government and Congress will be hostile. Rajoy’s most obvious ally is Ciudadanos, the new liberal force which shares many of his right-of-centre economic instincts and which voted in favour of his candidacy on Saturday. But elsewhere there is little to suggest Rajoy will find governing easy. The other new party, Podemos, promises to provide an aggressive opposition from the left as it makes its legislative debut, despite its own power struggle at the top of the party.

Meanwhile, the Socialist Party, still parliament’s second force, is in disarray. Its reluctantly taken decision to abstain in the confidence vote was crucial in allowing Rajoy to continue governing. But the dilemma over that decision has divided it – 15 Socialist deputies broke party discipline by voting against Rajoy – and left it leaderless, with many of its voters bitterly disillusioned.

As part of their attempt to recover the credibility as a leftist force that they have lost with Saturday’s abstention, the Socialists are expected to keep their distance from Rajoy, whom in the past they have portrayed as plagued by corruption and obsessed with austerity.

“Neither you nor your project has our support,” Socialist spokesman Antonio Hernando told Rajoy shortly before abstaining to allow him to govern. “You’re not the prime minister Spain deserves.”

In the face of such resistance, Rajoy’s first task will be to get the 2017 budget Bill through parliament. With Brussels wanting Spain to make €5.5 billion in savings next year, that will not be easy.

"After four years of having a congressional majority, the new situation demands a severe change of style from the Popular Party," noted La Vanguardia newspaper.

As of May 2017, Rajoy will be able to dissolve Congress and call an early election, should he find governing in this new landscape impossible. His secret weapon is that polls suggest his party is better positioned than any of his rivals should he decide to do so.