Angela Merkel's triumph in yesterday's federal election, which last night saw her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) on the verge of capturing half the seats in the Bundestag, has confirmed her place alongside Konrad Adenauer and Helmut Kohl as one of Germany's most successful post-war political leaders. It has also cemented her position as the most authoritative political figure in Europe and perhaps, given Barack Obama's recent misfortunes, the western world. Her victory came, however, at the expense of her coalition partners in the Liberal Free Democrats (FDP) who looked set to miss the 5 per cent hurdle needed for parliamentary representation, making a continuation of the current centre-right coalition impossible. An alliance between the opposition Social Democrats (SPD), who made feeble gains after a clumsy campaign, and the Greens, who saw their support shrink, is also a non-runner. The recently formed eurosceptic party Alternative for Germany appeared last night to have just fallen short of the 5 per cent they needed to win their first Bundestag seats.
Germany's economic success, low unemployment and political stability were key factors in securing victory but her own personality – solid and unassuming, ideologically flexible but capable of toughness – played a decisive role. As they watched European neighbours face economic turbulence and political volatility, many German voters concluded that they had little reason to change course at home. Germany faces significant challenges, however, including a looming demographic crisis and a public infrastructure in need of investment. And although European issues scarcely surfaced in the campaign and all the major parties have supported Dr Merkel's approach to the euro crisis, the new German government will confront difficult decisions on further economic and political integration and new bailouts for Greece and perhaps others.
Even if her Christian Democrats win a narrow absolute majority in the Bundestag, Dr Merkel may need a coalition partner for a stable government, not least because the opposition parties are stronger in the upper house, the Bundesrat. A coalition with the Greens is both numerically possible and ideologically plausible but the two have shown themselves in the past incompatible in terms of political culture. This leaves a grand coalition with the Social Democrats the most likely outcome, although many in the centre-left party would prefer to remain in opposition. Such a coalition would provide a stable, ideologically balanced government for Germany with a big enough parliamentary majority to allow the chancellor to make necessary compromises in Europe in the interests of the German people and their neighbours.