EU walks tightrope in fear Minsk talks will be endangered

The spiral domes alongside the art nouveau architecture of Latvia's capital city are testimony to the complex cultural heritage of this eastern corner of the European Union. Signs of Russian influence are everywhere in Riga, a city which is home to up to 300,000 ethnic Russians.

The decision to host the EU's fourth Eastern Partnership summit in the Baltic State is therefore apt, capturing the difficult path the EU must tread as it seeks to demonstrate its commitment to the former Soviet bloc countries to its east without inflaming tensions with Moscow.

The summit ended with a joint declaration reconfirming the “high importance” the EU attaches to its eastern partnership policy.

But even before it drew to a close, questions were being asked about whether a fifth will ever take place, despite a commitment in the final text to hold the next summit in 2017.

The EU's eastern partnership strategy – conceived less than a decade ago as a way of positively engaging the "buffer states" between Europe and Russia – is on unsteady ground since the crisis in Ukraine erupted 18 months ago.

Unrest in Ukraine

Russia’s annexation of Crimea and violence in the east of the country – events sparked by the last Eastern Partnership summit when former Ukrainian president

Viktor Yanukovich

refused to sign an association agreement– have overshadowed events here.

In particular the events in Ukraine have prompted questions about the purpose of the strategy. The decision to offer Ukraine closer integration with the EU without foreseeing Russia’s reaction has proven foolish. Despite correctly asserting that every sovereign country has the right to pursue closer links with Europe if it chooses, the EU finds itself constantly having to reassure Moscow that it is not disturbing its interests each time it negotiates with the eastern partners, fearing any move which might impinge on the fragile Minsk talks.

The commitment in the Riga declaration to pursue “differentiated relations” with the six partner countries shows the EU is at last acknowledging an inherent flaw of the eastern partnership strategy – treating the six ex-Soviet countries as a bloc.

Of the six states, only three – Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia – have signed association agreements with the EU. The other three appear to have little interest in furthering ties with Europe, with Belarus and Armenia already signed up to Russia's Eurasian union.

Patience wears thin

Even in the three more pro-European states, patience with Brussels is wearing thin, particularly when the promise of EU membership seems as elusive as ever. In Ukraine and Georgia, there is growing frustration that visa-free travel with the EU has not yet been endorsed.

Even in Moldova, whose citizens have enjoyed visa-free travel to the EU since April 2014, a recent poll by the Moldovan-based Institute for Public Policy found only 32 per cent supported joining the EU, though this in part may be a result of Russian propaganda.

But despite the challenges, EU leaders have said the union remains committed to the countries to its east. The main message from Riga is that the aims of the strategy as outlined in 2009 – to produce a “democratic, secure and prosperous” eastern neighbourhood for Europe – still stand.

Asked if Ireland was comfortable with the EU negotiating with countries such as Belarus and Azerbaijan, given their human rights records, Minister for Europe Dara Murphy said the EU was about helping these countries to improve.

“The purpose of these talks is to try and encourage them and support them to build the strongest democracies they can for their own people.”

Whether this message of solidarity will survive the realpolitik of relations with Russia in the coming years remains to be seen.