Angela Merkel seeks pre-election boost from CDU

Party delegates to put differences aside for chancellor’s campaign send-off in Essen

These are the best – and worst – of times for Angela Merkel. After 11 years as chancellor, the suspense ahead of Tuesday's gathering of her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is not whether delegates will re-elect her as leader to run for a fourth term next year. Her re-election is a given – the CDU has no one else. The only question is whether they will hand her a North Korea-style result, or deduct a few votes in protest.

On her ninth election bid as CDU leader, Dr Merkel is not expecting to match her support at the last CDU conference in the western city of Essen: 96 per cent some 16 years ago.

This is not a surprise given a series of state election disasters and growing nervousness over Islamist attacks during the summer and sexual attacks on women by migrant men, including a recent rape-murder in Freiburg.

These are all liabilities Dr Merkel will have to acknowledge when she steps up to the microphone today.

READ MORE

Gauging the mood

But she won't hide her achievements either. On her watch, Germany has sailed through economic crises with strong growth and low unemployment. Despite difficulties, it managed to absorb and house about one million asylum seekers last year.

Maximising her re-election result on Tuesday depends on gauging the mood correctly – and delivering the correct mix of humility and fire.

A year ago Dr Merkel delivered a passionate, take-no-prisoners address, framing the refugee crisis as the latest in a series of challenges mastered by Germany.

But public opinion has since cooled and, with no refugee assistance coming from EU partners, she has with little fanfare pivoted away from her original open-door policy.

The big asylum wave appears to have passed, with some 15,000 people arriving now monthly. But Austria's closure of the Balkan refugee route, once condemned in Berlin as contrary to asylum rules, now appears in the CDU party conference programme.

To slow defections to the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), Dr Merkel has backed proposals to toughen up asylum rules and step up deportations. In a further gesture to CDU refugee crisis critics, the party has included a programme promise to never allow a repeat of 2015.

All of this is likely to go some way to smooth ruffled feathers of refugee critics. And Dr Merkel knows her party well. It has never been a putsch party and, after letting off some steam, delegates will put their differences aside to give her the strongest possible campaign send-off.

Polarised election campaign

Delegates in Essen know that Germany faces an unprecedented polarised election campaign in 2017. From social media fake news to possible hacker interference, the CDU is braced for the worst.

And the worst could come after polls close next September if, as is likely, a record seven parties are voted into a crowded new Bundestag. That would make coalition talks extra tricky, and Dr Merkel knows that topping the poll is no longer a return ticket to the chancellery.

Given Dr Merkel’s polarising effect on voters – 40 per cent love her, the same hate her, 20 per cent don’t know – the CDU leader is anxious to redirect the focus away from herself with tax and pension election giveaways.

In the end, though, Dr Merkel knows her greatest source of political strength now lies in others' weakness. The Trump White House is still a big unknown, post-referendum Italy is in limbo, France is frozen before a bitter election and Britain is in Brexit agonies.

Given all that, Dr Merkel will present herself on Tuesday as an experienced continuity and a voice of sanity in an age of anxiety.