John Cushnahan: A united Ireland remains wishful thinking

The voters of Northern Ireland have spoken once again. The election was precipitated by Sinn Féin’s decision to collapse the powersharing institutions because of the perceived political arrogance of its partner in government, the DUP.

Furthermore, concerns about the possible fallout from Brexit for the Northern Ireland economy provided an additional background issue to the electoral contest.

Some political figures and commentators have concluded that the results show that there has been a seismic shift in the political landscape that heralds the death knell of unionism and has therefore brought the prospect of a united Ireland closer.

However, such wishful thinking is not borne out by an objective analysis of the results.

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The vote obtained by unionists (DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP, Conservatives, and Claire Sugden) totalled 45.2 per cent, while the vote obtained by nationalists (Sinn Féin and SDLP) totalled 39.8 per cent.

The remaining 15 per cent was shared by the Alliance Party, People Before Profit, the Green Party and others.

Furthermore, it is generally accepted by political commentators that while nationalist voters turned out in strength, unionist voters did not.

Consequently, the actual size of the unionist vote was not accurately reflected in these figures.

In relation to this latter point, I believe that this will not be repeated on the next occasion that Northern Ireland goes to the polls.

The triumphalism displayed by Gerry Adams in his statement that “the perpetual unionist majority” has been “demolished” will galvanise unionism and result in increased unionist participation in future elections.

But even if we set this point aside and assume that the voting patterns that obtained in this election were to be repeated in a Border poll, as sought by Sinn Féin and its fellow travellers, the final figures would nonetheless fall far short of a majority supporting a united Ireland.

Opinion polls

Opinion polls on this issue in Northern Ireland over the years have consistently shown that while Protestants overwhelmingly support the current constitutional status quo, Catholics are more divided on the issue.

A recent poll conducted after Brexit showed that although overall support for reunification had increased from 17 to 22 per cent, only 43 per cent of Catholics indicated that they would support a united Ireland as an option at this time.

Some political commentators have concluded that the current Sinn Féin strategy is now placing more emphasis on pursuing Irish unity than on re-establishing power-sharing devolution structures.

If this is true, I would like to remind Sinn Féin that voters in the Republic of Ireland would also simultaneously have to indicate endorsement of a united Ireland for it to become a realistic option.

This being so, I would like the Sinn Féin parliamentary party in Dáil Eireann to spell out in detail how the Republic’s taxpayers are going to fund the €8-€10 billion annually that some experts have stated would be required to absorb Northern Ireland.

How many hospital beds do they think we should close? How many proposed social housing units for the homeless should we remove from our building programme? What cuts should we apply to our social welfare benefits to fund it? What revenue should we raise from water charges? What increases should there be to our taxes? And so on.

These are legitimate questions. Even if a united Ireland were to happen in the wake of Brexit, there would still be a huge financial shortfall.

Although Northern Ireland’s farmers would be better off in a united Ireland because they would be guaranteed the continuation of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) payments, they would still, like their southern counterparts, face significant problems selling their produce into a non-EU United Kingdom market.

And it is reasonable to conclude that taxpayers in the Republic would be unable to fund Northern Ireland’s education, health and social welfare budgets in a post-Brexit united Ireland, given the likely impact of Brexit on our own economy.

Harsh realities

These are the harsh realities that must be faced. Therefore, what are the real conclusions that we need to draw in relation to the outcome of the recent election in the North?

For me, the obvious conclusion that we must face, even though it is thoroughly depressing, is that almost 20 years after the Belfast Agreement the electoral results show that Northern Ireland is as divided as ever.

Although the two extremes have shared power or, should I say, carved up power between them, no real attempt has been made to end the deeply embedded fear and mistrust that exists between the North’s divided communities.

No real effort has been made to bring forward policies of reconciliation to change this.

In conclusion, I would say to Sinn Féin: the recent election that you caused shows that Northern Ireland is entirely disunited.

Therefore, instead of simply stating platitudes about principles that are not reflected in your corresponding actions, you should use your considerable electoral strength and abilities in concert with your fellow northern parties and give priority to uniting Northern Ireland itself by agreeing to create powersharing institutions that respect both traditions equally.

John Cushnahan is a former leader of the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland and was a Fine Gael MEP