Greatest threat to Chinese government since protests at Tiananmen

Emergence of ‘colour revolution’ feared by Beijing authorities

In one of the more controversial scenes in the blockbuster film Transformers: Age of Extinction, Hong Kong policemen watch the chaos as giant cyborgs smash up the city and say, "We must ask the central government for help".

In the real world, when mayhem came to Hong Kong’s financial district in the form of democracy protests, the authorities seem not to need the help of the Beijing government.

The umbrella-toting crowds protesting in the financial centre are the most significant challenge to the Chinese government since it cracked down on pro-democracy protests in Tiananmen Square in 1989, and present the ruling Communist Party with a serious conundrum.

Railroad legislation

READ MORE

The demonstrators are opposed to China’s restrictive plan to allow only Beijing-vetted candidates to run in Hong Kong’s 2017 elections for chief executive. The demonstrations show that Beijing cannot railroad legislation against the wishes of the Hong Kong people, and may prompt a rethink by the central government.

“The reason that the central government has to shut down the protest in Hong Kong is because the central government doesn’t want the situation to extend or spread to mainland,” said Zhang Lifan, a Beijing-based historian who formerly worked at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and whose father was persecuted in the Cultural Revolution.

“Now it is different from 25 years ago. Back then, we didn’t have the internet, but now we do. The central government is worried,” said Zhang.

The Communist Party is always hyper-aware of how other authoritarian governments have fared in the face of protests, and it regularly criticises “colour revolutions” such as those in Ukraine or Egypt.

The government is anxious that the Hong Kong street protests should not turn into China’s version of the Orange Revolution in Ukraine or prove an existential threat to the leadership.

"Street movements can evolve into revolution when more demonstrators become embroiled in them. However, Hong Kong is not a country; it neither has the conditions for a 'colour revolution', nor are the forces on the street influential enough to mobilise its entire populace," said an editorial in the Global Times.

Diplomats were surprised to receive a letter from the Chinese foreign ministry, urging them to steer clear of the protests.

“At the moment, there are two games. One is the game in Hong Kong, which is a game between the government and people. The other game is a game in Beijing, which is a game among officials in central government. They both are waiting for the other party to make mistakes or to give up,” said Zhang.

Maintain security

The protests come as President Xi Jinping is trying to shore up support for the Communist Party by cracking down on corruption and dealing with

a widening wealth gap, as well as boosting China’s profile in the region.

The protests are the worst in Hong Kong since Britain handed back the former crown colony to China in 1997.

The territory’s chief executive CY Leung has said Hong Kong police will be able to maintain security without the help of People’s Liberation Army troops from the mainland.