Prison officers may hold the key to the fate of Croke Park agreement

In the end it may come down to prison officers to determine the fate of the proposed new Croke Park agreement.

So far only two craft unions, representing small numbers of construction staff, have backed the deal following ballots of members.

However, when the block votes of big unions such as Siptu, Impact and the Public Service Executive Union (PSEU) are announced tomorrow, that picture will change.

Final decision
However, the question is whether the numbers on the Yes side will grow sufficiently to offset the numbers of unions opposing the deal when the final decision is made at a meeting of the public services committee of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions tomorrow.

At this meeting, each union will be given a specific number of votes to cast, based on the size of its membership.

Siptu has more than 60,000 members in the public service and will have the largest number of votes at the public services committee meeting. It has recommended acceptance but there have been persistent rumours over recent days that it might be a close-run thing.

If Siptu rejects the deal, it is dead. Impact is expected to back the deal, as are members of the PSEU, a union which represents about 10,000 mid-grade civil servants.

Assuming that members of Siptu, Impact and the PSEU follow the advice of their executives and back the deal, the Yes side could be just tantalisingly short of the 1,447 votes needed to formally have the deal ratified.

Assuming unions representing staff such as the nurses and secondary teachers publicly opposed to the deal actually deliver a No result, the overall fate of the deal could come down to the Prison Officers’ Association and the Irish National Teachers’ Organisation .

The executive of the INTO did not make a recommendation on the deal and the Government and many on the Yes side are fearful it will reject the agreement.

The POA was originally part of the 24/7 frontline staff alliance against pay cuts. However, it stayed in the Croke Park process and later concluded an agreement with management that included the retention of twilight-hours payments and Sunday premium rates.

Dead heat
If the INTO and the POA both vote in favour, the deal should pass comfortably. However if the INTO, POA and all other unions reject it, the outcome at the public services committee could be a dead heat. If the POA accepts it , the deal is likely to be passed but by possibly as small a margin as 51 to 49 per cent.