We have seen the future, and it balances

So for all of you who get up early in the morning, this one is for you. Well, the political digest at least, if not the budget.

There has been less rabid speculation in the run-up to today’s event than in previous years. That’s partly because there has been less, essentially, to play with. If you commit to balancing the books and if the economy is lagging a little behind predictions, the cash isn’t there.

In the past 24 hours there has been a glut of leaks. We in The Irish Times report this morning that spending commitments could be €1.2 billion, funded largely by tax increases on commercial property transactions.

And so to the details. The wide degree of consensus in all media suggests they are not too far off the mark. There will be a modest fall in USC for the two lowest rates, with the 5 per cent rate dropping 0.25 per cent, and the lowest rate falling 0.5 per cent to 2 per cent.

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No direct income tax cuts are predicted, but there will be a €750 increase in the threshold for the higher 40 per cent rate, rising to €34,550 for a single person. Welfare rates will also increase by €5 for almost all recipients, but there may be a delay until spring 2018 in introducing that. That’s all when the sugar tax (announced last year) will kick in.

The main money-making change will be a steep rise in commercial stamp duty from 2 per cent to 6 per cent, which will yield €400 million. Of the old reliables, it is expected that tobacco (50c a packet increase) will be the only mark. No changes are expected in petrol or diesel duties.

The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council has been warning against an expansionary budget or, to use layperson’s terms, robbing Peter to pay Paul. At this moment, it looks like Paschal Donohoe will achieve that later today, but he has increased his scope for spending with one big targeted move for revenue-raising.

Could Brexit be that bad?

Yes, it could. In his fascinating new book, Brexit and Ireland, RTE Europe Editor Tony Connelly has disclosed the details of a very comprehensive report by Revenue on what Brexit could mean for our borders, and our customs service.

It made for very sober reading. It foresaw major headaches everywhere, with the resources and facilities of Irish customs being stretched to breaking point.

It wasn’t a Pavlovian reaction. A team of nine officials spent many months researching the issue and looking at the arrangements in place in non-EU countries with close relationships with the EU, including Norway and Switzerland.

The upshot was an exponential increase in bureaucracy and human resources. The report was even sceptical about how an invisible border would work. It said that an e-flow type situation where registration plates were read by camera would need a massive degree of interface between the IT systems North and South of the Border.

Even in the best scenarios, the possibility of customs posts and checks could not be discounted. With trade with the United Kingdom - and transit traffic - now subject to checks, it would mean massive increases in paperwork and delays.

The Government essentially dissuaded the Revenue from continuing its work. It was coming up with solutions (and indeed problems) that were ahead of the curve. There was a concern that the British had not spelled anything out, yet here was a branch of the Irish State essentially playing “war games” for possible scenarios.

Although no direct intervention was made, a few strong hints, including comments by then-taoiseach Enda Kenny in the Dáil, brought the work to an end.

It was interesting to see that everybody referred to the report dating from this time last year. But as Connelly astutely notes in his book, work was ongoing on the report until March this year. We may need to go back to it yet!