Kenny likely to brush off election date controversy

Labour may have to pay a price for facing Fine Gael down on timing of general election

Try as it might, Fianna Fáil was getting little traction for its comparisons between Enda Kenny and Gordon Brown last week as the prospect of a November election gathered pace.

Brown famously baulked at an early election after becoming prime minister in 2007, a decision from which he never recovered.

Kenny, in office for 4½ years, was leaning towards going to the country a few months before the end of his term.

Brown was spooked by a strong Tory conference that was capped by a policy announcement of a significant change to inheritance tax, a move seen as popular in marginal seats.

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The Taoiseach, on the other hand, was being faced down by his junior Coalition partner that, constitutionally, has no role in calling elections and that many in his party believe should fall in behind whatever decision is made.

Ruthless Kenny would win the day again, it seemed.

Yet, following the Taoiseach’s interview on RTÉ’s The Week In Politics, Fianna Fáil were quick to make the Brown comparison again, this time with legitimacy.

The only caveat is Fine Gael figures are still refusing to absolutely rule out the possibility of a November election, pointing towards the language deployed by Kenny is his interview. Intentions can change, after all.

"Whenever it comes, it is going to be a proposition from the Fine Gael and Labour parties to continue to be able provide that sense of stability," the Taoiseach said.

Capitulation

Maybe “whenever it comes” means Kenny is not 100 per cent ruling out November. Maybe some in Fine Gael are trying to save face after their capitulation to the Tánaiste.

Joan Burton – who seemed to have overplayed her hand last week – has emerged the victor, with one senior Labour figure boasting: "Well, it can't be said that we don't pull our weight in this Government."

But such braggadocio can come at a cost, and Labour and Burton may have to pay one for facing Fine Gael down.

While Kenny says he never changed his mind on a 2016 election, most people who spoke to the Taoiseach in recent weeks were left in no doubt he wanted a November election.

His evasiveness on the issue, from shifting from his original language on spring 2016 to declining to answer questions, underlined that message.

By Friday night, Labour sources accepted a November election was a likelihood and briefings to Sunday newspapers teeing up the Kenny interview pointed to an equivocal position that would leave that prospect open.

The message from Fine Gael was: stability and coherence is well and good, but we’ll still do this on our terms.

Consequently, many party Ministers were taken by surprise at the manner in which the Taoiseach said he still intended to hold the election next spring.

“He was going in November, there were no ifs or buts about it,” said one. “But she won the war, and he looks a bit like a fool now.” The battle, maybe, but not the war.

The Tánaiste’s stridence last week is unlikely to be forgotten, nor Labour deputy leader Alan Kelly’s claim that the Taoiseach is an “honourable” man who would stay the course until 2016, with its implied message that it would be dishonourable to do otherwise.

The Minister for the Environment’s stock is already low with Fine Gael, which gripes about his budget negotiating tactics and performance in office.

Suggesting the Taoiseach was embarking on a dishonourable course led senior Fine Gaelers to send a message to Kelly about their extreme displeasure.

The Taoiseach yesterday emphasised stability, as well as the vote transfer pact between the two parties. Burton and Labour may now find themselves in a place where they have to accept undesirable compromises for the sake of stability.

We are unlikely to see peace and harmony for the rest of the term, however long it is.

While everyone’s intentions can change – including the Taoiseach’s for a spring election – election fever will settle down for a few weeks, although a fresh round of the jitters will to break out if a poll shows the Coalition on course for re-election.

Kenny’s interview also served another purpose by clearing the way for this Government’s last major act: Budget 2016.

If we are a little – if not quite fully – clearer about the timing of the election, the campaign pitch will be on display in the Dáil chamber from 2pm tomorrow.

It will not be enough for the Coalition to offer itself for re-election on the basis of a crisis solved; it must present policies for the future and the budget will provide the platform for that.

Abolish USC

Yesterday we heard Kenny promise to abolish the USC if re-elected, a common position with Labour.

Michael Noonan has pitched the budget as the first of a second term so we could see USC cuts framed within Kenny's comments; moves on childcare as the first in a longer term plan; and tax concessions on the self-employed and inheritance tax staggered out over a number of budgets.

The Coalition hopes these proposals, rather than election squabbling, will dominate the agenda this week.

Brown never recovered from his wobble but Kenny will almost certainly lead the next Government, with or without Labour, his partners in stability.