‘Irish Times’ poll suggests shift to left in public opinion

If to govern is to choose, no choices are more important – or contentious – than where to spend scarce money.

In the last three years Ireland has moved from a position where the choices were about where to cut spending to one where the Government has to decide where to apply modest increases in spending. If anything, the competition for resources is even fiercer in the new environment. Sometimes having a little to spend is harder for a government than having nothing at all.

Today's Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll offers an insight into the preferences of voters about where the extra resources generated by economic growth should be allocated.

The clear preference of voters is for capital spending on such things as roads, schools and hospitals, and for the recruitment of more public servants such as gardaí, teachers and nurses.

By a significant margin they prefer these options to the others offered, namely increasing welfare payments, reducing tax/USC and increasing public sector pay.

The findings are clear. Offered the option of increasing public sector pay, just 6 per cent of respondents who expressed a preference said that it should be the Government’s first priority; just 8 per cent said it should be the second priority.

By contrast, offered the option of recruiting more gardaí, teachers and nurses, 27 per cent said it should be the first priority, while a further 30 per cent said it should be the Government’s second priority.

Capital spending

The most popular choice for the Government’s first preference was increasing capital spending on roads, schools and hospitals, with 35 per cent nominating it. A further 28 per cent said it should be the second priority.

Just 14 per cent wanted the Government to increase welfare payments as the first priority, while 18 per cent preferred tax cuts.

Consistent with these views are the findings in relation to public sector pay. More than a third of voters (34 per cent) believe that public sector pay and pensions are “a lot better” than their private sector counterparts, while a further 24 per cent believe they are “a little better”.

However, a little under half of voters (46 per cent) say the Government should begin negotiating a successor to the Lansdowne Road Agreement now. Some 39 per cent voters say that the agreement should be kept in place until 2018.

In a broader sense, the numbers offer further evidence that the centre of gravity of Irish politics has moved to the left, more towards a social democratic model of increased public investment rather than the conservative option of tax cuts. This factor was crucial to the result of the February general election.

Speeches

Fine Gael

has clearly understood this: observers in all parties have noted that the programme for government is a more social democratic document than the

Labour

Party manifesto was. The preference of the minority Government for greater public spending is written all over their speeches and statements since it took office.

The recent budget confirmed it. Of the €3 billion that the budget and pre-agreed spending increases (mostly Lansdowne Road costs and extra health spending) contained, just less than €300 million – one tenth – went on tax cuts. The Government has been putting public money where its mouth is.

The political and administrative challenge for the Government is to demonstrate that increased investment in public services leads to better public services. That, of course, is always the tricky bit.