Immediate decisions required of incoming taoiseach

Over the coming days, officials in the Department of the Taoiseach are likely to be asked to prepare Leo Varadkar's homework.

Briefing books containing information on all aspects of Government activity will be drawn up, revised or updated in preparation for the change of leadership in the country’s highest political office.

The officials work for the taoiseach of the day, but Enda Kenny – who will remain in office until the Dáil votes for his successor – is likely to ask them to assist in the transition.

Senior officials such as Martin Fraser, who holds the twin posts of secretary general of the department and secretary general to the Government, know Varadkar well and will organise briefings for him in whatever format he wishes.

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“Does he want to sit down with people, does he want large documents, does he prefer bullet points? That’ll all be worked on,” said one official.

Of course, all this presupposes successful talks with the Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin and the agreement of the Independents to continue with the coalition. Both are expected to be settled next week and, while difficulties are hardly unimaginable, it is in nobody's interests to delay the construction of a new government.

Varadkar impressed many observers and Fine Gael members with his command of policy areas beyond his ministerial brief during the hustings debates last weekend; he was obviously conversant with much of the broad sweep of government activity and policy. However, as Taoiseach he will be responsible for it; there's a big difference.

Three issues will require his immediate attention, and he may choose to take on a fourth.

Brexit

The first is Brexit. The new taoiseach will immediately begin preparations for his first European summit, which will take place in Brussels the week after he is elected. The summit is scheduled to take place over two days, June 22nd and 23rd, and it is likely that one day will be an "EU28" summit, involving the UK and dealing with matters such as the economy and migration, while the other day will be an "EU27" summit dealing with Brexit.

By then, the formal negotiations on Brexit between the EU and the UK are expected to have started. The EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has nominated Monday, June 19th as the day for negotiations to begin, though there is understood to be some grumbling on the British side about the EU issuing edicts about when the talks will start and how.

A key objective for Varadkar will be to get to know his European counterparts. In this task, the advice and insights of Enda Kenny will be important – the outgoing Taoiseach is one of the longest-serving members of the European Council (the highest decision-making body of the EU, including all its heads of government), and has also cultivated excellent contacts through the European People's Party, the group of which Fine Gael is a member. They will all have been briefed by their officials on the new Irish leader and will want to say hello; for his part, senior officials say, Varadkar will have to engage on substance and also build relationships.

The North

There are also immediate deadlines on the future of the Northern Executive. The British Government has set down a deadline of June 29th for agreement between the northern parties on a new administration, but talks will not begin until after the British general election on June 8th.

Official sources in both London and Dublin say that an early telephone call between the new taoiseach and the British prime minister is likely and a meeting on the margins of the European summit will take place, if not before then. Senior figures say that "direct involvement" from Downing Street and Government Buildings in the Stormont talks is probable, with some sources suggesting the governments could ask an outside – possibly American – facilitator to attend to break the deadlock between the parties.

If the talks fail to reach agreement, another assembly election could be called, or the British could seek to introduce direct rule for a period – something that Enda Kenny has counselled Theresa May against in the past. Varadkar may have to decide his attitude to this very quickly.

Public sector pay talks

Talks between the Government and the public service trade unions were due to end yesterday, but politics has intervened. As it happened, the talks adjourned at lunchtime. What has been achieved so far? Very little. The talks are in a holding pattern, waiting for the political authority to clarify. A pay proposal has not been even tabled yet by the employer side, though it is expected to arrive in the middle of next week.

Pay takes up a third of Government spending so any changes have a material effect on the public finances. The expectations of the unions can’t be met within the Government’s budgetary parameters. One or both of these will have to be amended, or the talks will collapse and the new taoiseach will be facing a wave of industrial unrest in the public sector. Insiders genuinely don’t know whether a deal is likely, or even possible. But far-reaching financial and political decisions will have to be made very quickly.

An Garda Síochána

The fourth issue is one the new taoiseach can pass up if he wishes. He can answer questions about the Garda Commissioner by taking refuge in the cover provided by the Charleton Tribunal – but that, of course, is what Kenny has done.

The new Taoiseach may decide to demonstrate that he has a different approach, or he may decide discretion is the better part of valour. Either way, major decisions are required.