Experts believe property prices will fall in 2013

Over three years most experts expect prices to recover modestly

Half of property market professionals and experts surveyed say residential proprty prices will fall in 2013. Photo: Alan Betson

Half of property market professionals and experts surveyed say residential proprty prices will fall in 2013. Photo: Alan Betson

Wed, May 22, 2013, 13:11

A new survey of 121 property market professionals and experts founds that more than half of respondents believe that the residential proprty prices will fall in 2013.

The survey was published by the Central Bank in its annual Macro Financial Review report and was carried out in the final quarter of last year by the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland.

A large majority of those taking a negative view believed that the decline in prices compared to 2012 would be less than 8 per cent. Just one respondent expected a fall of more than 12 per cent.

Approximately one third of those surveyed expected an increase in prices in 2013. One in ten believed prices this year would remain stable compared to the average in 2012.

One respondent - the most bullish of the 121 surveyed - predicted an increase of 9 per cent this year.

The surveyed group collectively was markedly more upbeat about propsects over a three year time horizon.

Almost two thirds of respondents expected prices to be higher in 2015 than in 2012. Just over one fifth expected prices to fall over the next three years and the remainder believed the market would be stable.

The average expectation for prices up to 2015 is for a percentage rise in single digits.

The range of expectations was much wider over the thre year time horizon than for the current year, with a handful of respondents on either extreme.

Two of the group surveyed expected falls in prices out to 2015 of 20 per cent or more, while two others were at the opposite end of the spectrum, believing that prices would rise by 20 per cent or more.

The survey group includes estate agents and surveyors, as well as those with a more indirect involvement in the industry such as economists, market analysts and academics.