Consensus growing among Coalition backbenchers on spring election

There is a growing consensus among Government backbenchers that the general election will be held in late February or early March next year.

"Bar an unforeseen set of circumstances, an unexpected banana skin, it will be within that time frame,'' said a long-serving Fine Gael backbencher.

The view is shared by Labour backbenchers who privately feel their best chance electorally is for the Government to serve most of its term.

Labour sources said there were important Bills the party would like to see passed by the current Dáil, including the Climate Change Bill, the Policing Authority Bill, the Adoption Bill, the Legal Services Bill and the Marriage Bill, giving effect to the same-sex referendum.

The Marriage Bill is expected to be passed by the Cabinet this week and put to the Dáil shortly.

Such a workload was unlikely to be dealt with in time for a November election, said a source.

Under the 1992 Electoral Act, the Dáil cannot continue for longer than five years from the date of its first meeting. The current Dáil first met on March 9th, 2011, which means it cannot continue beyond March 8th next.

The Act also stipulates that the election shall be held not earlier than 18 working days and not later than 25 working days after the issuing of the writs.

That would mean the election being held between April 1st and 9th if the Dáil runs its full term.

The consensus for late February or early March is based on the political calculation that voters seeing the budget tax concessions, leading to bigger pay packets, would look more benignly on the Coalition. The reduction in the pay cuts for public service employees would also be felt by then.

“The Civil Servant, teacher, garda and nurse would be more likely to vote for the outgoing Government when they see the increase in their take-home pay rather than waiting for it,’’ said a Fine Gael backbencher.

Backbenchers saw little merit in calling the election soon after the October budget.

“The extra money will not be in people’s pockets by then, the weather will be cold and wet, and people will be thinking of Christmas,’’ said a Labour TD. “It makes sense to wait for the spring.’’

A veteran Fine Gael TD said Taoiseach Enda Kenny would be aware of precedents where coalition governments arguably went to the country too soon.

"He was a young backbencher when Liam Cosgrave went to the country in the summer of 1977 when his government would have had a better chance in the autumn as the economy improved,'' said the TD.

"And Kenny was a minister when John Bruton and the Rainbow opted for a summer election in 1997, when waiting until the autumn would have been more politically astute.''

TDs from both Coalition parties said Mr Kenny would decide the timing in close consultation with Tánaiste and Labour leader Joan Burton.

A Labour TD said the Government’s best chance of re-election was to stay in power as long as possible.