Coalition parties may not keep three seats

Fine Gael’s Bernard Durkan topped the poll here in 2011 and managed to bring in running mate Anthony Lawlor on his coat tails. It was the first time in his 30-year Dáil career that Durkan topped the poll, and it reflected the big changes that took place in the 2011 election.

Labour’s Emmet Stagg was not far behind Durkan, and comfortably retained the seat he first won in 1987.

Social Democrat TD Catherine Murphy, elected as an Independent last time around, took the seat she lost in 2007 having first been elected to the Dáil in a byelection in 2005.

The Fianna Fáil vote in the constituency collapsed from 40 per cent to 14.5 per cent in 2011, and with it went both seats the party won in 2007 when it was the dominant political force in Kildare North.

However, there was a big turnaround in the local elections of 2014, when the Fianna Fáil vote went up to 24 per cent while Fine Gael dropped back below 20 per cent and the Labour vote halved. Independents got more than 30 per cent of the vote in the locals, while Sinn Féin won 10 per cent.

Kildare North remained largely unchanged in the constituency revision, with just a small portion of it around Robertstown and Timahoe moving into Kildare South. The population transfer involved is 4,698.

Housing shortage

Like most other constituencies, jobs are the big issue. While there has been considerable foreign direct investment in north Kildare, it has not been enough to supply enough jobs for the burgeoning population. There is also a shortage of housing. There is need for better public transport to Dublin. Farming issues are important, while the bloodstock industry is a vital part of the local economy.

The Government parties will be under severe pressure to hold their three seats in Kildare North. Durkan and Stagg are both just over 70 but they have shown themselves to be formidable vote-getters over the years and it would be foolish to write either of them off.

Durkan was first elected in 1981, and while he lost his seat in the election of February 1982, he regained it in November of that year and has held on to it at every election since. Given that record, he should be able to withstand a drop in the Fine Gael vote.

As the newcomer, Lawlor will probably feel the pressure most, but his family is well known in the county. He will put up a strong fight to hold on, and as a farmer he has the rural end of the constituency.

Stagg has been in the Dáil since 1987. He has always been a strong electoral performer and it is hard to see him failing to win a seat. Labour got 10 per cent here in the local elections, but Stagg is capable of getting significantly more than that. He will need to if he is to hold his seat.

Disclosures

Murphy has been one of the highest-profile TDs in the Dáil during 2015, with her disclosures about the dealings between the Irish Bank Resolution Corporation, the former Anglo Irish Bank, and Siteserv, a company sold to businessman Denis O’Brien. Her decision to read O’Brien’s alleged banking arrangements into the Dáil record created huge controversy but it earned her a national reputation and should ensure her re-election. Her decision to join the Social Democrats was a significant boost to the fledgling party .

Fianna Fáil is pinning its hopes on Cllr James Lawless from Sallins, who was first elected to Kildare County Council in 2014 and selected as a Dáil candidate in the spring of 2015. He has been involved in community groups and has been campaigning for a better rail service for the Naas-Sallins area.

Sinn Féin selected Réada Cronin as its standard-bearer but the strength of Murphy and Stagg will make a Sinn Féin breakthrough very difficult.

Independent councillor Brendan Young, an anti-water charges campaigner who was elected from the Celbridge-Leixlip ward, has also announced his intention of contesting the election.