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Newton Emerson: Snap election complicates Stormont stand-off

Theresa May’s move may throw a spanner into talks on forming a devolved government

It is fair to say that in Northern Ireland, at this moment, a UK general election slightly complicates matters.

The first question to arise in Belfast after British prime minister Theresa May called a snap poll was whether there will be a Stormont ballot on the same day.

The June 8th date is within the legal timescale for when another Stormont election must be called.

However, it is too early within the timescale of when a Stormont deal is expected – the consensus on that is September, which experience suggests means Christmas.

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In any case, there is no point to an election before a deal and no need for an election after a deal.

Devolution is already in injury time – another election should probably have been called two weeks ago

Having a Westminster contest in the middle of this is a coincidence and a temptation to mental tidiness but it does not alter the logic of avoiding a Stormont poll altogether.

Sinn Féin has insisted the law should not be fudged to prevent an election, and Dublin should pressurise London to observe the relevant legislation which stems from the 2006 St Andrew’s Agreement.

Injury time

However, this is mainly the sound and fury of positioning and brinkmanship.

In practice, Stormont can be parked in a limbo that never quite triggers the legislation, while the two governments deploy a form of words to keep the talks going.

Devolution is already in injury time – another election should probably have been called two weeks ago.

So a Stormont vote on June 8th is a red herring.

It can only happen if the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Féin reach a deal and then also demand a poll – and if they achieve that degree of commonality, what difference would an election make? It would be rearranging the deckchairs after refloating the Titanic.

The real complication from a general election is that people will treat it as a referendum on the Stormont crisis, despite Stormont and Westminster’s radically different voting systems.

Last March’s election brought Sinn Féin to within one Assembly seat of the DUP, while unionism lost its majority.

This heralds a battle to be the largest party and bloc that will dominate politics for years.

The fact that June’s election is to a separate parliament will not stop people rallying behind the DUP and Sinn Féin to put one ahead of the other.

Stormont elections are based on proportional representation by means of a single transferable vote (PR-STV) with five-seat constituencies.

Even under this system, designed to ensure political variety, the UUP and SDLP are facing a lethal squeeze.

Westminster’s first-past-the-post system could wipe them out at a stroke.

Unlike at Stormont, Westminster elections reward pacts.

The UUP will be under intense pressure to repeat the unionist pact it arranged with the DUP for the last Westminster election in 2015, which briefly reversed the party’s decline.

UUP leader Robin Swann was only appointed last month and immediately announced that unionist voters need choice, to ensure the Ulster Unionist Party’s (UUP) survival and the long-term health of unionism in general. He is now in an impossible position.

Border poll

Further complexity arises from how June’s result may be interpreted.

There will be attempts to portray it as a second referendum on Brexit and a plebiscite on holding a Border poll.

There is no election outcome that would make a Stormont deal easier

Welcoming the announcement of an election, DUP leader Arlene Foster said it was “an opportunity to vote for the union”, while Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams said it was another chance to vote against Brexit.

The first-past-the-post voting system produces blunt majorities. If the DUP and the UUP hold their current 10 out of 18 seats, they will present this result as a mandate for leaving the European Union.

If Sinn Féin and the SDLP raise their combined tally from seven to nine or more, they will present this as requiring a Border poll.

Should nationalists beat unionists on votes cast – unlikely, but possible – they will also present this as requiring a Border poll.

Thanks to Alliance Party and Green Party supporters, the nationalist and unionist blocs will both fall below 50 per cent of votes cast, but that will not deter either of them from claiming a mandate, anymore than it will stop May doing the same at Westminster.

Any of these outcomes will throw a spanner into the Stormont talks. There is no outcome that would make a Stormont deal easier, although at least a nine-all draw is possible.

The general election has been called just in time to avoid new boundaries that will reduce Northern Ireland to 17 seats, virtually ensuring future elections must have an overall winner and loser.

One thing the DUP seems guaranteed to lose in June is its leverage in a finely balanced Westminster.

The party has cherished a belief it will not be betrayed at Stormont by a Conservative government with a narrow working majority and Brexit rebels of both the Remain and Leave persuasion.

Whether that belief has been warranted – and the evidence has been scant – DUP morale will plummet once its seats are clearly surplus to Tory requirements.

That could end up being a surprisingly potent effect of this election.