Another stint in opposition would help Fianna Fáil rebuild

Perhaps the most sensible option for Fianna Fáil facing into next year’s general election would be to aim for a significant increase in seats followed by another period in opposition in order to rebuild.

But that’s a most unusual proposition to put before voters, and the risk for the party is that if it does not appear relevant to formation of government calculations it will lose support in the campaign.

The clear danger is that former Fianna Fáil supporters, and floating voters, may prefer to plump for a party that appears more likely to obtain power.

Fianna Fáil's new director of elections Billy Kelleher was refreshingly frank in his interview on The Irish Times political podcast, Inside Politics, yesterday.

Thrust into the position last week following the resignation of former minister Pat Carey, Mr Kelleher is a keen and realistic observer of politics as well as an experienced practitioner of the craft.

And there was a welcome lack of spin and stagecraft to the Cork TD’s presentation when he said:

- He was opposed to a so-called “grand coalition” with Fine Gael, while also firmly rejecting the possibility of coalescing with Sinn Féin.

- If Fianna Fáil is not the largest party in a new coalition it will “probably” go into opposition.

- The party could get 40 seats on “a very good day”, while more than 35 would represent a “major achievement”.

With the magic number of seats required to form a government in the next Dáil being 79, Fianna Fáil (currently with 21 seats) on their best day would require 39 partners.

With Fine Gael and Sinn Féin ruled out, it could still look to Independents, small parties and Labour, but that party’s seat numbers will be reduced in 2016 from its record figure of 37 in 2011. It seems unlikely the magic number could be reached with a stable set-up.

The other option is a new Tallaght strategy, under which the party would support a minority government from the Opposition benches.

But asked if he was also ruling this option out, Mr Kelleher said: “Of course you are... if Fine Gael have very much a different policy platform to Fianna Fáil, how would it be credible to support Fine Gael policies without having any role in their formulation or how decisions are arrived at?”

Mr Kelleher knows voters would be unlikely to thank Fianna Fáil for sharing responsibility for government decisions without having the power to influence them. Such a stance would also be ruthlessly exploited by the party’s political opponents operating in a more traditional Opposition role.

Continuing with his refreshing openness, Mr Kelleher also conceded that it had been difficult for Fianna Fáil to oppose the Government “in certain areas in the overall economic parameters”.

However, he said it had been easy to oppose the Coalition in other instances, such as the controversy over discretionary medical cards.

You can listen to the full interview with Mr Kelleher here.