Analysis: Labour to rely on housing plan to drive political recovery

Minister for the Environment Alan Kelly does not do understatement. Last week in the Dáil he repeatedly referred to his "legacy" when unveiling the revised water charges strategy. And on Wednesday, in announcing the new social housing strategy, he said he was "unlikely to have a more important day in the office".

Was there a bit of hyperbole? Perhaps. The water charges issue still clings on albatross-like around the neck of the Coalition. All things being equal, Kelly acquitted himself well last week as he tried to get some score board respectability in a game that has been lost. But it was a bit early to talk about legacy.

That said, both announcements were major deals. The Government will rely heavily on the strategies being successful as it tries to recover from a dismal 2014.

And that especially goes for Labour. Any perusal of the document from last July setting out the new priorities for Government will show that housing was a huge issue for Labour. The party is partly pinning its hopes for a rebound on the social housing strategy working.

The first thing that can be said about this new plan is it is comprehensive and ambitious – promising to provide some 35,000 social housing units between now and 2020. The second is that it is backed by a large (and real) budget, €3.8 billion over five years, the vast bulk of which will come directly from State coffers.

The last major housing policy of this nature was in 1995. Few will quibble with the reality that over the past decade social housing has been scandalously neglected. Local authorities cut back drastically on building homes. The Part V provisions, that required 20 per cent social and affordable housing, contained too many get-out clauses for developers.

It meant side deals were done where developers traded other land in exchange for not having to build those units. Many of the projects were long-fingered and then abandoned when the recession struck. Besides, with so few new houses being built in recent years, the number of Part V houses was paltry – a drop in the ocean compared to need.

As the list of those families and individuals in need of housing crept to an unacceptable 90,000, local authorities were building a little over 1,000 new units a year; a clearly inadequate response.

The new strategy envisages that 22,500 of the new units will be new builds; a further 11,000 will be leased, with the refurbishment of 2,300 vacant or boarded-up council houses and flats making up the balance. There will be a particular focus on Dublin where the need is greatest, with a Dublin taskforce being set up to ensure delivery.

The era of big local authority estates on the edge of cities and towns is gone – with 70 per cent on the list being classed as single, or single parents, there will be a big emphasis on smaller, mixed (private and public) developments. That element really needs to be a success.

There is some window dressing. It’s not all new money, but there is certainly much more than before. It’s in the rented sector where perhaps the strategy flatters to deceive. At present about 73,000 receive rent supplement or assistance. The Government will introduce a scheme called the Housing Assistance Payment (HAP) that will cater for 75,000. This will differ in two respects: It will be handled by local authorities; and those receiving HAP won’t be in danger of losing it immediately if they obtain work – that was a problem with the older scheme.

For some this looks like a rebranding exercise, rent supplement by another name. And they are not too far wrong. Kelly insisted On Tuesday he would not introduce rent controls. But he did mention the need for measures such as fixed-term leasing agreements to prevent tenants losing their homes in a market in which rents could potentially skyrocket.

Only time will tell if that will work.

There’s also the implementation problem. The strategy sets out troika-like “conditionalities” with timelines for each. While many of the homeless and housing agencies have welcomed the strategy, they noted that it takes time to translate such programmes into bricks and mortar.

Essentially, they were saying it will need unrelenting focus. Politically, Kelly will need to be able to show tangible results within the next year that demonstrate he has not been indulging in overstatement.