Keeping an eye on Russia

How little things change in this big world of ours

How little things change in this big world of ours. It was exactly 100 years ago today, on September 5th, 1898, that the Skibbereen Eagle ran its famous editorial: "We will still keep our eye on the Emperor of Russia and on all such despotic enemies, whether at home or abroad, of human progression and man's natural rights." The Skibbereen Eagle is no longer with us, but Russia is, and the eyes of the world are still firmly fixed upon it.

Meteorologists have always kept their eye on Russia, not least because that country sometimes gets ideas that might be described as meteorologically silly. One such, a quarter of a century ago, was the alarming affair of the Ob and the Yenesi.

The Ob and the Yenesi are two great Russian rivers that lie far to the east of the Ural Mountains and meander northwards across the West Siberian Plain to meet the Arctic Ocean in the Kara Sea. One day a team of Russian scientists had a flash of brilliance: why not dam these rivers and at the same time provide the necessary artificial channels for the water thus contained to drain southwards to the Caspian Sea? The scheme, they felt - and probably correctly - would dramatically increase the agricultural productivity of the vast, arid steppes of Kazakhstan.

They also foresaw other useful side-effects. Without the influx of fresh water from these rivers, the Arctic Ocean would become progressively more salty, and as a result would be reluctant to freeze over during the winter months. With the Arctic Ocean virtually free of ice, offshore oil reserves would become more easily exploitable, and cargo vessels during the winter could use a shorter, cheaper route to distant destinations.

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But climatologists in the western world were aghast when they heard about the plan. An Arctic Ocean without ice would be up to 5C warmer than it is at present. The change would upset the present thermal patterns of the northern hemisphere, and alter the general circulation of the atmosphere in such a way that the average path of rain-bearing North Atlantic depressions would be shifted significantly towards the pole. It was calculated that in the middle latitudes, rainfall would dramatically drop, and in particular over most of continental Europe water would become very, very scarce.

For a little time the argument raged to and fro in scientific circles. Finally, and much to everyone's relief, it was decided to leave the Ob and the Yenesi as they were. Climatologists went back to worrying about global warming, and the Russians, as always, found yet another crisis with which to occupy their minds.