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Close allies of Taoiseach Enda Kenny believe his time as leader of Fine Gael is coming to an end and expect the issue to be brought to a head next month.
Mr Kenny’s leadership has again been brought into sharp focus as a result of the controversies involving Garda whistleblower Maurice McCabe.
TDs and Ministers said the possibility of an election has led to a realisation that they must change leader. Mr Kenny has said he will not lead Fine Gael into another election and TDs do not want to be bounced into one with him at the helm.
Government Chief Whip Regina Doherty contacted a number of first-time TDs on Saturday night after details of a poor opinion poll emerged, but it is understood this was via text message and did not mention the issue of leadership.
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The Irish Times understands, however, that she was not acting on behalf of Mr Kenny.
“It was kind of like: ‘How are you – are you OK now?” said one TD. “It was directly on foot of the poll. I’d say she was testing a few backbenchers.”
While it is acknowledged by many that Mr Kenny should be allowed to travel to Washington to meet US president Donald Trump for St Patrick's Day, some – even those close to the Taoiseach – said his leadership could be questioned before then.
However, it is extremely unlikely there will be any moves this week because the Government is facing a motion of no confidence from Sinn Féin.
It was pointed out by one Minister that the tabling of the motion this week – which then rules out another such motion for six months – allowed for a window in which to have a leadership contest without the risk of an election.
‘No panic stations’
A close ally of Mr Kenny said: “There are no panic stations here. He is hard to figure out, but it could just be too much for him at this stage.
“It is getting close to the end. Maybe if we get to May, but we keep putting out milestones, and I think people are getting fed up with that.”
A pro-Kenny Minister said his leadership was coming to an end: “I just know the way fellas are going on, I know something will happen.”
Another said: “I would never say this publicly but he needs to do it for the good of the party, otherwise he’ll lead us into an election and we’ll come back with 30 seats.”
It is widely hoped in the party that Mr Kenny will step down of his own accord.
Leadership candidates have showed no signs of approaching Mr Kenny and asking him to stand aside, and backbenchers are reluctant to table a motion of no confidence in him.
“We’ll have to think that through,” said one Minister, also close to Mr Kenny, of how he could be removed. “We don’t have an answer to that yet. The cleanest way for it to be done would be if he did it himself.”