Ireland’s role in Brexit referendum

If there was any doubt there was an Irish dimension to the Brexit referendum, it was dispelled during the final high-profile BBC TV debate in Wembley Arena on Tuesday evening.

With a live audience of thousands, and millions more watching at home, the stakes could not have been higher. Each of the six speakers were primed to deliver the most potent and cogent points.

One of the three Remain speakers, union leader, Frances O'Grady specifically referred to the impact Brexit would have on Northern Ireland, and also on relations with its closest neighbour.

In an plea not to let down the Irish, she referenced Taoiseach Enda Kenny:"The Irish prime minister has said that if we come out of the EU, there will have to be border controls. And let me tell you, the way that's seen in Belfast and Derry, I really worry for our future. We should be building bridges between people, not walls," she said.

Ireland was always going to be more than an interested spectator in the Brexit debate. From the autumn onwards, the Government began planning the manner and means of its involvement during the referendum campaign.

As the months progressed, and as it became clear the outcome would be very tight, it is clear that the strategy changed from one of benign engagement to something far more active. In the last month, the Taoiseach and his senior ministers put the foot on the accelerator and any pretence that it wasn’t really a participant was thrown out the window.

Much of the Government’s response emanated from an ESRI report on the consequences of Brexit last autumn, which calculated that Britain leaving the EU could damage the Irish economy to the tune of €10 billion per annum.

The Government's message from the start was that Britain remaining a member of the EU was good for Europe, good for Britain and also good for Ireland.

The argument last autumn was predominantly an economic one. Kenny travelled to London in November, for example, to address the Confederation of British Industry to emphasise the close political and economic ties between both countries.

As 2016 progressed, other issues came to the fore. The possibility of custom checks and border controls with the North being revived was emphasised by Minister for Foreign Affairs Charlie Flanagan. The argument was nuanced at first, became less so as the debate assumed more urgency.

The status of the North and the peace process were, of course, obvious issues. Some ¯€3 billion of EU funding might be in jeopardy - there was also the anomalous situation that might arise that a town like Dundalk would remain in the EU, while nearby Newry would no longer be in the EU.

Another conscious decision was taken by Government early on that it would concentrate its focus on the estimated 400,000 or so Irish-born residents in Britain.

In the last weeks of the campaign, senior ministers visited the North, Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool, London, Newcastle, Sunderland and Glasgow in an effort to get out the Irish vote. They focused primarily on Irish community and cultural centres. But as vox pops with Irish-born residents showed, the Government was not having it all its own way. Far more than just a smattering of those living in Britain strongly supported Brexit.

The North of course was also voting and its 2 million votes could prove crucial in the event of a close call and depressingly, the voting intentions seem largely to have split across sectarian lines.

Sinn Féin has long had a half-hostile relationship with the EU but it has evolved slightly in recent years to a position of more engagement.

To use its own parlance, it has moved to a position of being Euro-critical - buying in to the concept of the EU but no to its current thnking, or direction or rulers.

The party opted for a Remain vote. It would have been deeply anomalous for it to tolerate one half of an all-Ireland party being in the EU and the other outside it.

However, its call for a Yes vote was hardly enthusiastic or unconditional. Gerry Adams and the party leadership left most of the running on the matter to the party's MEPs. It did not exactly flood republican areas in the North with canvassers.

Indeed, some of its own supporters, as Fiach Kelly’s report showed this week, believed Brexit would actually be good. Cue a very low level of engagement in Sinn Féin strongholds.

The other parties of the centre all campaigned for a Yes vote, with party leaders all making the mandatory trips to address communities in Britain. The Greens even tried to initiate a 'phone your cousin' campaign.

The only parties in the South that actively supported Brexit were the small left-wing parties, the Socialist Party (AAA); and the Socialist Workers Party (PBP). They supported the British left-wing “Leftexit’ campaign.

Of course, the Government was also beginning to prepare for contingency plan in place in the event of Brexit. A high-level meeting with the British government on the referendum will take place in early July.