Give Me a Crash Course In . . . a second presidential term for Michael D Higgins

Labour says it backs its nominee to stay in office after 2018. Now Fine Gael has voiced support. Could the President be returned unopposed?


Is the President seeking a second term in Áras an Uachtaráin?
The short answer is that we're not sure. When he was campaigning in the presidential election of 2011 Michael D Higgins said he would only serve one term in the Phoenix Park. When asked the question in recent months, however, President Higgins has left open the possibility of a second term. Last year he said he would make a decision "in the fullness of time". His first term is up in late 2018, meaning we are two years away from another presidential election, if there is to be one.

So it's still a good bit away. Why are we talking about it now?
Leo Varadkar of Fine Gael said this week that Higgins would attract cross-party support were he to seek a second term. Varadkar praised the President's performance and said he'd have "enormous support" to stay in office. The Labour Party's new leader, Brendan Howlin, also recently said that Higgins, who is 75, should go for a second term. Howlin's comments are unsurprising given that Higgins was a Labour nominee, but Varadkar is the first senior politician from another party to make such a statement.

What does Michael D have to say about all this?
The Áras has so far declined to comment on the President's intentions, but speculation in political circles is that Higgins at least fancies the idea of a second term, even if he's still weighing up his options. The President would be 84 by the time he left the Áras at the end of a second term.

Why would other parties want to allow him a free run?
One Cabinet Minister, speaking privately this week, says that Higgins is hugely popular with the public and that it would be largely pointless to stand a candidate against him. The President's popularity has not been polled in quite some time, but politicians acknowledge that he is widely liked and admired. Another consideration for some parties will be the money involved in funding a presidential campaign. One source this week estimated that it would cost about €500,000. The timing of the campaign will be important. Local and European elections are due in mid-2019, and most people believe that a general election is highly likely within three years. Allowing Higgins a free run could help to save money for other campaigns.

READ MORE

So if all parties agree, and Michael D wants it, he'll be going back to the Phoenix Park for another seven years?
That's a big if. None of the parties has seriously thought about the next presidential election, and even if they were all to agree that Higgins should get a second term a few other factors would come into play. The main political parties in the Dáil – Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and Labour – could all support Higgins for a second term, but he would not necessarily be returned unopposed in the way that Mary McAleese was, in 2004.

Who else could enter the field?
Under presidential-election rules, candidates need support from 20 Oireachtas members – either TDs or Senators – or from four local authorities. An election can be avoided if parties agree, but there is now a sizeable group of Independent TDs and Senators, who could nominate an alternative candidate. Two Independent Oireachtas members – the super junior minister Finian McGrath and Senator Gerard Craughwell – this week said they would prefer a contest, but they would have to find a willing candidate: as well as being costly, presidential elections are bruising affairs. President Higgins, on the other hand, does not have to go through another nomination process, as the Constitution allows existing and former presidents to nominate themselves.