Googleplex in Menlo Park, California: Public companies like  Google, Amazon and Facebook   have been richly rewarded for prioritising long-term projects ahead of short-term earnings pressures. Photograph: Josh Edelson/AFP/Getty

McKinsey report finds short-termism in US costs millions of jobs and hampers growth

Black Monday,  October 19th,  1987. The Dow Jones closing last week over 2,000 points above its 200-day average for the first time ever isn’t as ominous as it appears.  Photograph:  Maria Bastone/AFP/Getty Images

Stocktake: A cool look at overbought markets and cracks in the global rally

Snap’s valuation, expected to be in the region of $20-$25 billion, means it will likely trade on a stratospheric price-sales ratio of 55. Photograph: Lucy Nicholson/Reuters

No major flotation in recent decades has looked remotely as expensive as Snap’s

JP Morgan, Fidelity, Amundi and Schroders were among the companies selling funds with an active share of under 60 per cent and a tracking error of less than 4 per cent, said Better Finance. Photograph: Simon Newman/Reuters

Stocktake: Funds sold as actively managed may actually closely follow benchmarks

Donald Trump-induced trade disruptions are a possibility in 2017, says BlackRock’s Larry Fink. Photograph: Al Drago/The New York Times

Stocktake: Worrying about Trump, don’t believe the hype and snapping up the wrong ‘Snapchat’

Since 1926, less than half of stocks actually generated any returns for investors, new research shows. Photograph: Scott Olson/Getty Images

Study over last 90 years finds the majority of stocks underperform risk-free bonds

US president Donald Trump: tech giants Apple, Google and Microsoft  all voiced  concerns about travel ban. Photograph: Alex Brandon/AP

Is Wall Street’s three-month honeymoon with Donald Trump coming to an end?

Investors would prefer to avoid trade wars, geopolitical strife and incompetent policymaking. Photograph: Timothy A Clary/AFP/Getty Images

StockTake: Trumponomics sparked a big bounce, but concerns have curtailed rally

Sense of perspective required to put ‘big, scary numbers into context’

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Photograph: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

Stocktake: Even if Trump’s presidency proves unexpectedly successful, investors are likely to witness a bear market during his ten(...)

Madame Tussaud designers in London adjust a wax figure of US president-elect Donald Trump. His behaviour and policies will dictate whether more market U-turns arise. Photograph: Will Oliver/EPA

Investors respond rapidly to incoming US president’s unpredictable rhetoric and policy

 Bernie Madoff: “He stole more money than anyone in history, and to other thieves, this makes him a hero.” Photograph: Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

Stocktake: The Trump factor, presidential tweets and Madoff’s hot chocolate monopoly

In Barclays’ “blue-sky” scenario, favourable political outcomes could drive an index gain of as much as 18 per cent. Photograph: Getty Images

Both Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch are making optimistic noises for 2017

British investors would have made more money if they had invested almost anywhere else

  Michael Lewis, author of The Undoing Project and, previously, The Big Short. Photograph: TJ Kirkpatrick/Getty

Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky paved the way for behavioural finance

Investor sentiment is buoyant ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration as president of the United States on January 20th, a survey of newsletter writers has shown. Photograph: Damon Winter/The New York Times

StockTake: ‘Bull market checklist’ suggests any decline unlikely to be decisive

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange  in Manhattan. Most 2017 forecasts focus on the stock-friendly measures promised by the incoming Trump administration. Photograph: Andrew Kelly/Reuters

Strategists are quite bullish, favouring US over Europe, but should investors care?

“Stocks have more than tripled since March 2009, with six of the last eight years producing double-digit returns.” Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

Stocktake: Investor optimism, emerging markets, political fears and a quiet holiday period

Traders  on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange recently. Photograph: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

How unrealised fear of a global recession has given way to renewed hope for 2017

Donald Trump: his expectations for fiscal stimulus next year have clearly changed market expectations. Photograph: Andrew Kelly/Reuters

Stocktake: Trump’s election victory has decisively altered market expectations in US

Women who do become fund managers tend to be given less responsibility than male fund managers

Just one in nine fund managers in Ireland is a woman, and the problem is getting worse worldwide

Sir Martin Sorrell of WPP: Does his £70.4m  a year package qualify as a “superstar salary”? Photograph: Eamonn M McCormack/Getty Images

Stocktake: Italian crisis not a crisis, bullishness at 17-month highs and ‘exuberance’ on way

Trump bump: this is not a short-term bout of euphoria triggered solely by Trump’s surprise election victory – markets have been getting into gear since the summer. Photograph: Toru Hanai/Reuters

Much is made of the recent spike in bond yields, but bonds had bottomed last July

Donald Trump: The billionaire’s shock presidential victory, like the Brexit vote, caused markets to tumble before bouncing back.  Photograph: Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty Images

Stocktake: Round-number milestones historically associated with under-performance

Whatever one’s feelings about Donald Trump, it pays to remember that in markets, the trend is your friend. Photograph: Brendan McDermid/Reuters

Stocks may have enjoyed a nice rally but there is no cause yet for euphoria

Donald Trump: some pundits who predicted a Trump victory have been lauded as Nostradamus-like visionaries, even if their predictions were only half-right. Photograph: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

Asked about the possibility of Brexit in April, the ‘bond king’ said it would not happen

As markets rallied following Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, Wall Street changed its previously bearish tune. Photograph: Alex Kraus/Bloomberg

Stocktake: Market response to US election result confounds bearish forecasters

Wilbur Ross has played down fears of a trade war with China

Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross tipped to become new US commerce secretary

Calculating your type: Patient types may opt to wait for the bigger payments while less patient souls might prefer to get their hands on the money straight away

Novel ways of engaging pension-fund investors are being devised, ranging from a short quiz to face-ageing apps

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump speaks during a rally at the Sioux City Convention Center in Sioux City, Iowa on November 6, 2016. Donald Trump barnstorms five states Sunday while Hillary Clinton implores her most fervent supporters to get to the polls, in a frenetic final 48-hour dash to the US presidential election. / AFP PHOTO / MANDEL NGANMANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images

Consternation regarding Trump’s victory is understandable, but one point bears repeating: don’t let your politics colour your inve(...)

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton smiles on stage at a rally  in Las Vegas. Photograph: AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

Markets are waking up to the risks, falling eight days in a row following the narrowing of Hillary Clinton’s lead

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has been notably boastful  when recounting  his own  investment performance. Photograph: REUTERS/Carlo Allegri

A cool look beyond the bluster at the Republican candidate’s financial prowess

Republican  nominee Donald Trump: influential Citigroup economist Willem Buiter  warns that a Trump presidency could actually lead to a global recession. Photograph: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

Will a Donald Trump victory really have the disastrous effects predicted by some?

The current reading is quite remarkable; one expects such cash levels during market crises, not when indices are near all-time highs. Photograph:  Mary Altaffer/AFP

Stocktake: El-Erian’s timing out; financial illiteracy; investors lose faith in Trump

Going with your gut: “The results of the study indicate the market ‘selects’, Darwinian-style, ‘for traders with good gut feelings’, with those lacking in this department ‘eliminated’ over time.” File photograph: Scott Olson/Reuters

Recent study suggests that traders attuned to physiological signals make more money

“Sterling may well go much lower, but bears should not assume this is a one-way bet.” Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA

Stocktake: Mixed signs on earnings, betting against fear and greed, and the value of a good name

 Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

Those who nip in and out of markets would be wise to not view the recent sterling chaos as an isolated incident

No one really knows for sure where sterling ought to be or where it’s going to go

Shoppers on Grafton Street in Dublin: the market bubbles that did not burst are just as important for investors to know about as those that did burst. Photograph: Cyril Byrne

Most booms don’t result in busts: a recent Yale study found only one in 10 goes bad

US Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. Photograph: Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

Stocktake: Rodrigo Duterte not helping markets while active fund managers have bad year

Becoming the 11th GICS sector gives listed real estate additional prestige and prominence. S&P and MSCI, as ‘Financial Times’ columnist John Authers noted recently, “have done the Reits industry a big favour”. Photograph: iStockphoto

With real estate added as a new global index sector, Reits will see more growth

Stock prices change because of supply and demand, and seasoned investors know that most day-to-day action is merely market noise. Photograph: Getty Images

Excitable coverage of financial market movements not a recent development

US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen. Photograph: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

Rate increase would shock markets despite high-profile calls for rise

The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered a 16 per cent peak-to-trough decline following the 9/11 attacks. Photograph: Sean Adair/Reuters

Markets show resilience as terrorist attacks are increasingly priced into stocks

Apple’s iPhone 7: “Changes are small and incremental rather than revolutionary.” Photograph: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

Stocktake: Apple shares look fragile, stuck in a downtrend since April 2015

Investors are debating the Sanford Bernstein report which warns that the growth of index funds may distort markets, but such conc(...)

Apple’s  “Think Different” ad in the 1990s associated the company with ‘round pegs in the square holes, the ones who see things differently’.

Also: Europe’s indices hit bottom; is September the cruellest month? dullish markets

Sterling enjoyed a decent bounce last week, following better-than-expected economic data. Photograph: Chris Radburn/PA Wire

Overconfidence in CEOs not always bad and it’s too early to know if pound has bottomed

Stay or go? Funds characterised both by high active share and patience (defined as holding positions for at least two years) have significantly outperformed over the last 26 years. Photograph: Bernd Kammerer/AP Photo

Research suggests investors can profit by buying funds that go against the grain

Market boom: it’s quite common for multiple indices to hit new highs at the same time. Photograph: Eric Thayer/Bloomberg

The S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq recently hit all-time highs on the same day, but can the rally last?

 George Soros: recent filings show that he and David Einhorn had reduced their stakes in Apple. Photograph: ChinaFotoPress/Getty Images

Fund managers still cautious, changes at Apple, and was Bill Miller just lucky?

Brexit: July’s half-hearted sterling rebound always resembled a dead cat bounce. Photograph: Thinkstock

Also Marc ‘Dr Doom’ Faber predicts doom again this year; the Zika virus and investors

Warren Buffett (speaking for the Hillary Clinton campaign): like other legendary fund managers, he has had his bad years along with the good. Photograph: Ruth Fremson/The New York Times

It’s very difficult to beat the stock market as even top fund managers have shown

Republican US presidential candidate Donald Trump: envisages a market apocalypse . Photograph:  Sarah Rice/Getty Images

US presidential candidate warns investors ‘very scary scenarios’ lie ahead

Researchers have found high-profile indices tend to be restrained by psychologically important levels such as multiples of 100 or 1,000. Photograph: Steven Saphore/Reuters

Many investors are influenced by the psychology of stock price levels

Marissa Mayer: set to pocket more than $200 million by the time she walks away from Yahoo. Photograph: Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Chief executive’s package has been met with incredulity, given her failure to turn around the company

The current bull market is more than seven years old, making it the second-longest rally in history.

Lessons of history undermine bearish arguments about high-flying stocks

Seizing the moment: analysis shows stock market reaction to world events is hard to predict. The general logic is that it is best to hold a diversified portfolio. Photograph: Daniel Leal-Olivas/PA

The stock market moves in strange and counterintuitive ways. Predicting these to turn a profit is far from easy

An American flag flying outside the New York Stock Exchange. Earnings are forecast to decline by 5.4 per cent, but the true figures are unlikely to be that bad.  Photograph: Eric Thayer/Bloomberg

As US indices hit their first all-time high in more than a year, investors hope a rebound in corporate profits is, finally, in si(...)

Forecasts in financial markets are heavy on caveats and surprises can happen

However, market prices still ‘trounce’ polls and pundits in forecasting events

Sterling has plunged by more than 20 US cents since hitting $1.50 on June 23rd. How low can the pound go?

Andrea Leadsom downplays Brexit fallout, correlations spike, insiders buy shares

On the day following the UK vote, stocks fell $2.08 trillion. Photograph: Lucas Jackson/Reuters

Selling up after a major market shock is seldom a good idea

Brexit: could exercise investors in the months ahead. Studies show social and political values affect people’s investments in various ways. Photograph: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty Images

People’s political views shape their investment outlook, but personal bias can prove costly

Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. Photograph: KENA BETANCUR/AFP/Getty Images

A look around the world’s markets

A bronze of a bull fighting with a bear is displayed at the Museum of American Finance on Wall St in New York City. Photograph: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Influential investors are warning of trouble, but following them may unwise

A specialist trader works at his post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Photograph: REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Whether the Leave or Remain sides win, it’s going to be a bumpy journey

Professional money managers typically keep cash allocations of roughly 3 to 5 per cent – way lower than ordinary investors. Photograph: Justin Lane/EPA

Retail investors have kept cash allocations high even though shares tend to trounce cash long term

George Soros: a flexible trader, unafraid to make market U-turns. Photograph: Stan Honda/AFP/Getty Images

History indicates even the fabled investor is not omniscient

A trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange: bull and bear market cycles can be difficult to reliably identify. Photograph: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

Stocks had ‘only’ fallen by 15% at February’s market bottom, but this has felt like a bear market for many investors

Anti-Brexit supporters dressed as bananas protest in England as Boris Johnson MP was addressing supporters during a Vote Leave rally. (Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

The chances of Brexit as short sellers spook executives

Gold has been the second-best-performing precious metal this year. Photograph: Sebastian Derungs/AFP/Getty Images

Gold is one of the best-performing assets of 2016, but its reputation may be overstated

New York Stock Exchange: Goldman says a variety of risks could catalyse a 5-10 per cent drawdown in the coming months. Photograph: Carlo Allegri/Reuters

Markets may be about to get nervier, Goldman Sachs has warned

In one study, just over half of companies examined had no women in obvious leadership positions

Firms led by women appear to a sounder investment

Hedge funds will never be 100 per cent exposed to equities so some underperformance is inevitable in a long bull market. Photograph: Brendan McDermid/Reuters

The funds are coming under scrutiny and even Warren Buffett has scoffed at their ‘unbelievable’ fee structure

Crude oil: topped $46 last week

Jeremy Grantham’s mea culpa, low volatility, crude predictions, in the red

Bullish or bearish? US and European equity markets have enjoyed stellar returns over the last 30 years, with both markets delivering annualised real returns of 7.9 per cent which is well above historical norms

Next 20 years expected to be much tougher after three fortuitous decades

Jeremy Grantham

Investment decisions questioned, from predictions to deposit-free mortgages

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Photograph: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

Investors are living through the second-longest bull market in US history but the scars left by the global financial crisis are un(...)

The seven-year bull market has hung on to become the second-longest rally in S&P 500 history

Bull market may continue; gains for emerging markets; beware round figures

RBS analyst Andrew Roberts, who instructed clients to “sell everything” in January

Wrong-footed investors carp as S&P 500 hit fresh all-time highs

BP’s chief executive Bob Dudley:  BP shareholders voted on April 14 to oppose his  $20 million pay package for 2015, the rare revolt reflecting outrage after the British oil and gas company recorded its biggest annual loss. Photograph: REUTERS/Suzanne Plunkett/Files

Shareholders are rejecting proposals to ramp up CEOs’ rewards

Robert Shiller, professor of economics at Yale University. Photograph: Ramin Talaie/Bloomberg via Getty Images

A new Yale study shows that both institutions and individuals regularly overestimate the likelihood of market meltdowns

Prime Minister David Cameron  at the launch of the ‘Brighter Future In’ campaign bus at Exeter University in Devon, after he said he will “make no apology” for spending taxpayers’ money on a pro-EU publicity drive ahead of the referendum on Britain’s future membership.  Photograph: Dan Kitwood/PA Wire

Investors sceptical of low-conviction rally

New York Stock Exchange: many studies confirm that stock markets are not the preserve of hard-headed financial types. Photograph: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

Trading for the sake of trading tends not to be a profitable endeavour

Pfizer chief executive Ian Read: “This deal is not just about tax benefits.” Photograph: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

Impact on share prices of uncertainty over UK’s EU future difficult to calculate

Oil: on the rebound? Photograph:  EPA/STEFAN SAUER

Crucial earnings season ahead and European stocks finally outperform the US

Market ups and downs: a focus on short-term performance means money managers are engaging in activity that is causing bubbles and crashes

Is short-termism and a slavish preoccupation with benchmarks by institutional investors hurting markets?

Inside the Federal Reserve  in Washington. Photograph:  EPA/SHAWN THEW

A look around the world’s stock markets

Up and down: investment consultants admit past performance continues to be the most important criterion for selecting managers. Photograph: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

Replacing best-performing managers with the poorest performers might just deliver the goods for investors

Limiting the downside doesn’t mean investors can’t enjoy decent upside, according to David Conlon of Merrion Investment Managers

The relative minnow has more than tripled in value since 2007

A bronze “Charging Bull” statue in New York’s financial district. Photograph:  REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Ireland is worst for closet trackers and poorer fund managers do better

A specialist trader works at his post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Photograph: REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Barclays Equity Gilt Study makes clear that stocks are the best long-term bet

London Stock Exchange: British stocks look cheap, says JP Morgan.  Photograph: Leon Neal/AFP/Getty Images

Research indicates there is value to be had in many international markets, but the same cannot be said of Ireland

A specialist trader works at his post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Photograph: REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Short selling on the rise, volatility and low returns and running out of ‘ammunition’

More articles