Crime rates plummet during recession despite mounting fear

Most types of crime have been in freefall since the start of the the economic recession, with murders and gun crime dropping by more than half.

There have also been major decreases in public order crime, criminal damage offences, drug crime and car theft.

The trends flatly contradict the assumption that crime rises during times of recession.

A long-term analysis of the Republic's crime data by The Irish Times reveals crime trends have almost exactly mirrored the rise and fall of the economy, peaking around 2007-08 and then freefalling for years before beginning to stabilise more recently.

Some categories of reported crime have increased. For example, the number of rapes reported to the Garda were up by 54 per cent since 2008, to 536 cases last year.

And while the burglary rates have fallen in the past 12 months, the crime has increased by 11 per cent since its low point of 2007. Thefts from shops are 10 per cent higher compared to 2008.

Myth

But when the main crime types were examined from their peak to the end of last year, the key trend to emerge was a fall in most categories of crime (see panel).

The data, supplied by the Central Statistics Office, debunks the myth Ireland is in the grip of a crime epidemic.

Public meetings have been held in recent months in several regions, and in Dublin last week, in protest at assumed rises crime and to campaign for more Garda manpower.

However, with many types of crime linked to the consumption of illegal drugs and excessive levels of alcohol, it is arguably not surprising that crime rates fell in a period when disposable incomes contracted so severely.

The reduction in Garda numbers from a high of more than 14,500 to about 13,000 has undoubtedly resulted in more crimes going unnoticed, because of fewer gardaí on the beat.

However, Garda numbers continued to rise until 2010 and crime was already sharply declining by then, in some categories having been in decline for four years by the time Garda numbers peaked.

Reporting

Some forms of crime – such as murder, discharging of firearms and vehicles being stolen, among others – will always be reported to the Garda by victims or concerned members of the public, irrespective of Garda numbers.

The figures emerge just days after the crime data covering the first half of this year confirmed the fall in crime was continuing. The most significant element of the new data revealed a significant drop in the number of recorded burglaries in the 12 months to June 30th – a major clampdown by the Garda since the end of 2015 achieved a 26 per cent fall in the crime.

Unlike other types of crime, burglary rates increased during the recession; rising by 19 per cent between 2007 and 2012 and remaining at a similarly high level.

Garda sources say the recent drop in recorded burglaries has resulted from the force’s focus on targeting prolific burglars.

The Irish Times examined the crime statistics for the 13-year period from 2003 to the end of last year. The trends, with very few exceptions, show the Republic's crime rate growing until 2007 and 2008.

A small number of offences peaked in 2006 or 2009, but in most cases the peak years was 2007 or 2008.