Key states set to decide results
The US presidential election will be decided in a few battleground states, writes Patrick Smyth, Foreign Editor
If, as opinion polls currently predict, Barack Obama captures such critical states as Virginia, Florida, Ohio and Indiana he will be well on his way to winning the 270 electoral votes that will put him in White House before the western half of the country finishes casting ballots.
Ohio (20 electoral votes) - battered for years by unemployment and plant closings, in this working class bastion Obama is leading McCain 49 percent to 43 per cent among people likely to vote.
Florida (27) - considered a likely win for Republicans not long ago, but now McCain is trailing, 48 percent to 45 per cent.
In both states, Obama has opened commanding leads over McCain among women, young people, first-time voters and blacks and other minorities.
Virginia (13) - Bush won by 9 points in 2004 in a state that has not gone Democratic in a presidential election since 1964. But Virginia's trend has been toward Democrats in recent state elections amid dramatic growth.
Indiana (11) - Bush beat Kerry by 20 points in 2004 in a state that last voted for a Democrat in 1964. But it borders Obama's home state of Illinois and he has poured resources into his Indiana campaign. Obama is ahead 1.5 points in the latest polls.
Indeed, as the map above shows, any one of these four states should be sufficient to bring him from the 259 "solid" votes he should secure in safe Democratic states over the winning 270 line.
In 2004 11 states - Oregon, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Ohio - representing just over a fifth of the electoral college votes were decided on margins of victory of less than five per cent ("marginals").
Such has the tide apparently turned against the Republicans that of the five of those marginals that went to George Bush - Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa and Ohio - polls suggest only Nevada is in the marginal camp this time, and even there Obama has a three-point lead in the polls.
All the rest show poll leads for Obama over six per cent.
Of the six marginals that went to the Democrats' John Kerry in 2004 - Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire - all are now manifesting solid leads for Obama in the polls of over nine per cent with Oregon and Michigan on leads of 14 and 17 per cent respectively.
Pennsylvania with its 21 electoral college votes has been a particular focus of the McCain campaign in recent week. He hopes there to break traditionally Democratic working class white voters hurt by the financial crisis from the party, although they gave Kerry by a 2.5 per cent victory margin in 2004 and Al Gore, 4.2 per cent in 2000.
Currently Obama appears to have a lead of over 10 per cent in the state.
Tallying electoral college votes across the whole of the US in solid Republican and Democratic states (where either candidate has a lead of over nine per cent) suggests that Obama can already be confident of some 259 of the 270 electoral college votes needed to win, while McCain can only be assured of 137.
In states "leaning" towards either candidate (with a margin of between five and nine per cent) Obama can hope to pick up a further 47 votes to McCain's 20, pushing the former well over a majority position.
On the basis of such polling data only six states remain marginal - Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, and Montana - with only the latter showing a McCain lead (Bush won the state by a 20-point margin).
All six marginals voted for Bush in 2004. They represent 75 electoral college votes.
*Poll figures from Real Clear Politics poll averages
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