Is the growth of air travel sustainable?

 
Oisín Coghlan says much of the pleading from the airline industry is based on myth, when they say it is responsible for only 2 per cent of pollution.





These contradictory trends are projected to get worse. While the Irish and British governments predict a doubling of airline passenger numbers between now and 2030 and plan to provide for it, both governments have also pledged to cut climate pollution by 3 per cent a year on average.

A collision is on the cards. To avoid dangerous climate change, we must limit global warming to less than two degrees above pre-industrial levels. If aviation continues to grow unchecked it would account for all our permitted emissions well before 2050.

All other polluting activity including much that is essential for human survival - would have to stop, just to allow the aircraft to continue flying. Personally, I would rather have food, shelter, heat, light, jobs and leisure activity with family and friends, even if that means curtailing flying.

You will hear much special pleading from the airline industry, much of it based on myth.

You will hear that aviation is only responsible for 2 to 3 per cent of climate pollution. The 2 per cent figure, taken from a 1999 IPCC report, uses data from 1992. Those figures refer only to CO2 and don't take into account the total climate impact of flight. When you include nitrous oxide emissions, contrails and cirrus clouds, aviation accounts for 4 to 9 per cent of the human contribution to climate change. This range reflects the uncertainty surrounding the full effect of the cirrus clouds generated by planes.

You will hear that aviation will only account for 5 per cent of EU emissions in 2030. But that scenario assumes low growth in aviation emissions, of less that 2 per cent a year, whereas in fact they have been growing at over 4 per cent a year. And it ignores the fact that, unlike the airline industry, other sectors are already committed to reducing their emissions under EU plans.

So this is not about picking on the airline industry, it is about asking every sector to do its fair share to tackle climate change.

You will hear great claims about improved aircraft fuel efficiency, good enough to rival that of cars. In fact today's turbojet aircraft are no better than the typical piston-powered airliners of the 1950s.

The comparison with cars assumes every seat on the plane is filled. Load factors are more like 70 per cent. It also underestimates car occupancy rates on long distance journeys, which tend to be higher than on short journeys, and once again only includes the CO2 impact of flight.

When you take all these factors into account aircraft are at least three times more polluting than cars. Moreover, when was the last time you drove 10,000 miles in a car? During the whole of last year maybe. You cover the same distance in a weekend shopping trip to New York.

It is absurd therefore that airline fuel is exempt from tax. No wonder you can fly from Cork to Dublin for less than it costs you to fill your petrol tank or buy a train ticket. The rest of us, Irish Rail included, pay hefty taxes on our transport fuel.

In Ireland the madness extends to directly subsidising domestic air routes at the expense of a decent train service. The price of flying will have to rise to reflect the cost of flying, which includes the cost of burning fossil fuels high in the atmosphere, not just the cost of extracting them from deep underground. Domestic subsidies will go, international taxes will come.

Moreover, the revenue should be used to compensating developing countries struggling to cope with climate change they did not cause.

It gives me no great pleasure to herald the end of the era of cheap, guilt-free, flight. Like many of my age and background, I took it for granted.

It has not been the socialist nirvana that is often implied, however.

Yes, more people flew but mostly richer people just flew more often. In the UK, the richest quarter of households account for half of all flights, the poorest quarter for just 7 per cent. In the biggest low-cost airport in Germany, the monthly income of passengers is twice the national average.

Price alone will not be enough to ensure aviation plays its part in containing climate change. Governments will have to cap capacity, so no third terminal and no second runway at Dublin airport, for starters.

The sooner the industry accepts this the sooner it stops looking like a flightless bird with its head in the sand. Oisín Coghlan is director of Friends of the Earth

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