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Progressive Democrats

NO OF SEATS IN OUTGOING DÁIL: 8
NATIONAL SHARE OF VOTE 2002: 3.96%

Michael McDowell once famously said that the Progressive Democrats would be "radical or redundant". The party's critics and political opponents are now fondly hoping the electorate will serve the PDs with redundancy notices, but past experience suggests a degree of caution may be appropriate before making such a forecast.

Last February's Irish Times/TNS mrbi survey put the PDs at a mere one per cent, although their usual showing is around 3 or 4 per cent. Sure enough, they were up two points in the subsequent poll carried out for this newspaper last week.

Yet the PDs must privately wish they were in the same situation as the Greens, a party of similar size, which doubled its support to 8 per cent in February and, despite falling back two points in April, still looks set to make substantial gains on election day.

Connoisseurs of the intersection between public relations and political strategy will be forever parsing and analysing the "stroke" pulled by McDowell on May 4th, 2002, prior to the last general election, when he shinned up a lamp-post in Ranelagh to post his famous placard, "One-party government? No thanks!"

It was the perfect example of a daring and imaginative manoeuvre that caught the mood of the electorate. Prior to McDowell's démarche, the indications were that Fianna Fáil would walk off with a clear majority in the next Dáil.

But there was unease among the electorate, fuelled by tribunal revelations and previous experience of Fianna Fáil-only administrations. In a flash of inspiration, McDowell offered Fianna Fáil with the PDs riding shotgun and a grateful electorate delivered that precise result.

That was then, this is now. When the spotlight shone on Bertie Ahern's financial affairs last September and details were revealed of the generous gifts of money he received from various businessmen when he was minister for finance, critics would say it was the perfect opportunity for McDowell to fulfil his promise, declare the Taoiseach guilty of "conduct unbecoming" and withdraw haughtily from Government.

It was the kind of judgment-call McDowell could hardly have anticipated when he airily clambered up that ladder in 2002. His decision to stay in will now be put to the supreme test of the polling booth.

Will he be vindicated or will the electorate rule that he failed to live up to his promise to monitor and correct the behaviour of Fianna Fáil in general and Bertie Ahern in particular? The role of the PDs has been unique in European politics.

They can be compared with the Free Democrats in Germany, another small party that has participated in numerous coalitions over the years.

Unlike Labour's ill-fated marriage with Albert Reynolds, the PDs did not cut and run at an early stage over an issue that seemed important but has now been buried in the mists of time. Cynics might have it that, when they were bought, they stayed bought, but others could argue that they established a template for small to medium-sized parties of whatever colour on how best to play the coalition game.

Fianna Fáil is notoriously a catch-all populist party that combines a strong emphasis on getting into office - and staying there - with a highly-flexible approach to ideology.

Whatever party, left or right, goes into government with the Soldiers of Destiny, can expect to have a significant proportion of its policies adopted and there have been many accusations that the PD tail has wagged the Fianna Fáil dog over the years.

But whatever the PDs may feel they have achieved politically, the undeniable fact is that many voters will be swayed by their personal attitude to the party leader and, to some extent, his predecessor, Mary Harney.

One of the strongest personalities in Irish politics, McDowell's critics attack him for an apparently congenital inability to stay out of the limelight and keep his views to himself on any issue. One observer said that McDowell "has never had an unpublished thought".

Napoleon once said he wanted lucky generals and the PD leader has had the misfortune to be Minister for Justice at a time when gangland murders have become almost a weekly occurrence. McDowell may be his party's greatest asset or its biggest liability: the coming weeks will tell.

Progressive Democrats website