The coalition options: will any party do a deal with another?
The fragmented result means there are numerous potential options – but few are likely
The number of TDs needed to form a majority is 79. Photograph: Alan Betson
A number of possible combinations for forming a government are available following the election, although various parties and groupings have ruled out doing business with others such as Sinn Féin.
A majority in the 32nd Dáil is 79 TDs. While that number is needed to elect a taoiseach, a minority government can survive with fewer deputies. A taoiseach can also be elected on fewer than 79 votes if a group or party of TDs abstain.
Most parties have procedures in place to officially ratify a programme for government or coalition before actually entering office.
Here are all possible options:
Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil coalition
Fine GaelFine Gael minority government, possibly including some Independents, with Fianna Fáil support from the opposition
Fianna Fáil would support Fine Gael on a case-by-case basis in Dáil votes and the government would be made up entirely of Fine Gael ministers. However, in order to win a Dáil vote on the position of taoiseach, Fine Gael would have to seek the support of others, since Fianna Fáil will not support Enda Kenny.
Non-party deputies would seek some agreement on a programme for government – or a similar, looser arrangement - or constituency deals, which would effectively tie them into the minority government.
Fine Gael could also reach out to the Social Democrats and the Green Party. The Green Party has to ratify any coalition deal at a special party conference and the proposal would have to be approved by two-thirds of delegates. The three Social Democrat TDs would likely make the decision whether or not they would enter government, albeit in consultation with failed election candidates and others in the party.
Under such a deal, Fianna Fáil would have considerable sway over government policy and would seek significant policy concessions.
Fine Gael-led government with Labour, the Social Democrats, the Green Party and Independents
Such a government would be very difficult to assemble, not to mention difficult to manage. Labour would have to get approval from party members at a special conference to re-enter government, seen as unlikely following the party’s disastrous election.
Fianna Fáil and others, such as Labour, AAA-PBP, Social Democrats, Green Party and Independents
Eamon RyanPaul MurphyFianna Fáil- Sinn Féin and others
This is extremely unlikely since Fianna Fáil has said it will not deal with Sinn Féin and Sinn Féin has said it will not go into government as a junior party. Sinn Féin members have to ratify a coalition arrangement at a special ard fheis.
Fine Gael-Sinn Féin
Minority Fianna Fáil government with Fine Gael support
On a numbers basis, it is plausible but highly unlikely to appeal to Fine Gael as they have the higher number of seats.
AAA-PBP, Sinn Féin and Independents could seek support from the two biggest parties for forming a government led by the left